Archives du séminaire Régulation et Environnement
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/04/2024 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Abstract: It is now plausible to envision scenarios in which global demand for crude oil falls to essentially zero by the end of this century, driven by a combination of improvements in clean energy technologies and adoption of increasingly stringent climate policies. This paper asks what such a demand decline might mean for global oil supply once the industry adopts a belief that the decline is upon it. One concern is the well-known “green paradox” effect: because oil is an exhaustible resource, producers may accelerate near-term extraction in order to beat the demand decline. This reaction would increase near-term CO2 emissions and could possibly even lead the total present value of climate damages to be greater than if demand had not declined at all. However, because increasing or even maintaining the rate of oil production requires investments in wells and other infrastructure, and because such investments can be long-lived, the opposite effect may also occur: an anticipated demand decline causes firms to reduce their investments, hence decreasing near-term production and CO2 emissions. I develop a tractable model that incorporates both of these effects in a market with heterogeneous producers—while also capturing industry features such as exercise of market power by low-cost OPEC producers and marginal drilling costs that increase with the rate of drilling—and examine quantitatively which effect is likely to outweigh the other. Preliminary results indicate that for model inputs with the strongest empirical support, the disinvestment effect dominates the traditional green paradox effect. In order for an anticipated demand decline to substantially increase near-term global oil production, I find that industry investments must have very short time horizons, and that producers must have discount rates that are comparable to U.S. treasury bill rates.
Kellogg Ryan () *The End of Oil
Régulation et Environnement
Le 25/03/2024 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Despite recent improvements in the ecological status of wild-capture fisheries, a significant share (33%) of global marine stocks remains overexploited. While top-down management has been shown to work in many settings, there is growing interest in demand-side interventions, which work through consumer-originated price signals to incentivize reduced fishing pressure. The effectiveness of demand-side interventions would rely, in part, on a large enough supply elasticity of fisheries, though this crucial statistic is notoriously difficult to estimate and remains elusive in the literature. Using plausibly exogenous variation in fish prices and extensive data on the world's fisheries, we derive an empirical approach to estimate this elasticity using an instrumental variables estimator. We find it is very low -- similar to that observed in comparable sectors. This suggests that even if prices did respond to demand-side interventions, the supply response would be small. To determine whether the ensuing supply response would have meaningful ecological consequences, we combine a bioeconomic model of fisheries with a global model of supply and demand for seafood calibrated with our estimates. We find that even interventions that lead to dramatic demand shifts are unlikely to achieve more than marginal improvements to fisheries status. In contrast, we find that supply-side policies (such as well-enforced fishing quotas), even imperfectly designed or implemented, can result in substantial recovery.
Missirian Anouch () *Can Demand-Side Interventions Rebuild Global Fisheries?
Régulation et Environnement
Le 18/03/2024 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper studies allocation efficiency of auctions for solar and wind energy capacity
creation, conducted by Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI). These
auctions have helped create 54 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity in India.
SECI’s auctions usually have large procurement targets, which are beyond
the capacity of a single firm. The auctions are open descending bid format,
where bidders publicly reveal their capacity constraint and bid on the selling
price of their electricity. The market clearing price is the one with least excess
demand, and a residual award is provided to the last exiting bidder. In this paper,
I show that such rationing rule and asymmetric capacities of bidders lead to
inefficient allocation. I further use SECI’s bidding data to structurally estimate
the cost distribution of the bidders, and through a simple simulation exercise,
show that a sealed bid version reduces probability of inefficient selection by
20-33 percent points without affecting the payoffs.
Singh Abhijeet Manpreet () Supplier rationing and allocation efficiency: case of renewable energy auctions in India
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/03/2024 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
A heat wave pans out differently across areas within a city. This paper documents these microclimate variations, estimates the damage function on urban small businesses, and studies mitigation strategies. We: (1) leverage high-resolution satellite data to document sub-city temperature variations during a hot day; (2) use geo-located revenue and consumer traffic data from over 150,000 restaurants and other eatery service establishments in a mega city of China to estimate the damage function of these microclimate shocks on business outcomes; and (3) present new evidence that urban green spaces around businesses mitigate the microclimate shocks they experience. Our research highlights location microclimate management as an important part of business strategies in the face of rising climate risks.
Zhang Shuang (Imperial College London) *Microclimate risks and urban businesses
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/03/2024 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Abstract: Building energy efficiency is a cornerstone of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies with billions of dollars set aside for extensive upgrades in the coming years. However, impact evaluations have revealed actual energy savings from home upgrade programs often fall short of projections, in part due to contractor underperformance. Using field experiment results, we show refining one program design element—offering performance bonuses to contractors--increased natural gas savings by 24% and generated $5.39-$14.53 in social benefits per dollar invested. Hence, how money is allocated within government programs may be as important as choosing among programs for maximizing returns to public spending
Christensen Peter (Imperial College London) * Incentive-Based Pay and Building Decarbonization: Experimental Evidence from the Weatherization Assistance Program
Régulation et Environnement
Le 26/02/2024 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a structural model to represent individual transportation decisions, the equilibrium road traffic levels, and speeds inside a city. The model is micro-founded and incorporates a high level of heterogeneity: individuals differ in access to transportation modes, values of travel time, and schedule constraints; road congestion technologies vary within the city. We apply our model to the Paris metropolitan area and estimate the model parameters from publicly available data. We predict the road traffic equilibria under driving restrictions and road tolls and measure the policy consequences on the different welfare components: individual surplus, tax revenues, and cost of emissions.
Durrmeyer Isis (Imperial College London) *The Welfare Consequences of Urban Traffic regulations
Nicolas Martinez (TSE)
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/12/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper studies the welfare impacts of introducing a market-based mechanism for the allocation of scarce airport take-off and landing slots. The usual revealed preference approach that recovers values from optimal bids is unavailable because there are no bids to invert. Instead, slot values are defined as the additional profit that an airline carrier generates by operating a flight in the slot. These values are estimated using a flight-level structural model of demand and supply of airline tickets, which accounts for consumer departure time preferences, scheduling efficiencies across the carrier’s global flight network, and aircraft-specific costs. Counterfactual simulations assess the welfare impacts of auctioning slots and highlight the asymmetries across carriers due to scheduling and hub efficiencies. Moreover, synergies across departure slots are quantified to shed light on how to best design the auction mechanism.
MARA Marleen (Imperial College London) *Competitive Award of Scarce Airport Slots: an Empirical Analysis
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/12/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a structural model to represent individual transportation decisions, the equilibrium road traffic levels, and speeds inside a city. The model is micro-founded and incorporates a high level of heterogeneity: individuals differ in access to transportation modes, values of travel time, and schedule constraints; road congestion technologies vary within the city. We apply our model to the Paris metropolitan area and estimate the model parameters from publicly available data. We predict the road traffic equilibria under driving restrictions and road tolls and measure the policy consequences on the different welfare components: individual surplus, tax revenues, and cost of emissions.
Durrmeyer Isis (Imperial College London) *The Welfare Consequences of Urban Traffic regulations
Nicolas Martinez
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/11/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Confronted with political opposition to the implementation of efficient carbon pricing, climate policy relies on alternative policy interventions, at a cost in terms of welfare and public finance. In order to evaluate this cost, this paper studies, in the context of the energy transition, second best climate policies constrained to keeping a constant level of the carbon tax and combining it with subsidies to carbon-free electricity generation. This subsidies can take the form of a feed-in premium paid to electricity produced from carbon-free sources, or of subsidies to investment in green capacity. Within a stylized dynamic model where energy may be produced with fossil or carbon-free sources and climate policy aims at satisfying a carbon budget, we define and characterize the carbon pricing gap. We show that if the constant carbon tax is small and therefore the carbon pricing gap large, the subsidy to carbon-free sources should be so large to foster rapid build up of green capacity that it would imply large investment costs and financial burden on the public budget, and a large welfare loss. For a very small constant carbon tax it may be the case that the subsidies have to be maintained even after fossil has been phased-out, to prevent its come back. We calibrate the model to the European energy market to obtain orders of magnitude of the effects.
RICCI Francesco () *Confronting the carbon pricing gap: Second best climate policy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 20/11/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
What do markets for voluntary climate protection imply about people’s valuations of environmental protection? I study this question in a large-scale field experiment (N=255,000) with a delivery service, where customers are offered carbon offsets that compensate for emissions. To estimate demand for carbon mitigation, I randomize whether the delivery service subsidizes the price of the offset or matches the offset’s impact on carbon mitigation. I find that consumers are price-elastic but fully impact-inelastic. This would imply that consumers buy offsets but their willingness to pay (WTP) for the carbon it mitigates is zero. However, I show that consumers can be made sensitive to impact through a simple information treatment that increases the salience of subsidies and matches. Salient information increases average WTP for carbon mitigation from zero to 16 EUR/tCO2. Two complementary surveys reveal that consumers have a limited comprehension of the carbon-mitigating attribute of offsets and, as a result, appear indifferent to impact variations in the absence of information. Finally, I show that the widely-used contingent valuation approach poorly captures revealed preferences: Average hypothetical WTP in a survey is 200 EUR/tCO2, i.e., 1,150% above the revealed preference estimate.
Rodemeier Matthias () *Willingness to Pay for Carbon Mitigation: Field Evidence from the Market for Carbon Offsets
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/11/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Jarvis Stephen () *
Régulation et Environnement
Le 06/11/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This study aims to explore if Japan’s environmental regulation, such as its regional emissions trading scheme (ETS), can improve innovation without inducing carbon leakage. Using unique firm-level data for the period from 2003 to 2018, based on the difference-in-differences method, this study investigates how firms address issues such as innovation and outsourcing under Japan’s regional ETS framework. The key findings are as follows. (1) Japan’s regional ETS is effective in improving targeted firms’ innovation during the early stage of the compliance period. (2) Targeted firms that pursued innovation before the ETS promoted subsequent innovations after the ETS. (3) Japan’s regional ETS did not induce the risk of carbon leakage through outsourcing activities. (4) Firms that did not actively encourage innovation increased their outsourcing activities during the compliance period. Based on these findings, we discuss the study implications and directions for future policy design.
Arimura Toshi () *Does Emissions Trading Scheme Induce Innovation and Carbon Leakage? Evidence from Japan
G.Lu and T.Sadayuki
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/10/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
I examine how peer-to-peer sharing platforms that use internal currencies instead of real money should set prices. Individuals must earn currency by supplying on the platform and can only spend it by consuming on the same platform. Beyond this difference, such systems often mimic real markets where prices equalize demand and supply. I argue that non-market-clearing prices can be superior. As individuals typically only have a limited demand for the specific goods on the platform, some may become satiated and reduce their supply. This might induce others to reduce their supply in turn and thus lead to unraveling. I illustrate with a stylized model of a dynamic exchange economy that reducing the price of attractive goods may increase their supply and aggregate welfare. In the empirical part, I focus on a widely-used platform for exchanging holiday homes. Using proprietary data on the universe of transactions I confirm key predictions of the model. My results suggest that satiation is quantitatively important. Thus, compressed prices might indeed improve upon market-clearing prices - despite possible side-effects like misallocation. A broader insight is that lessons from traditional markets may not easily extend to markets without real money.
Goedde Julius (PSE) Satiation, unraveling and capping prices. Designing peer-to-peer platforms with internal currencies
Régulation et Environnement
Le 09/10/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We use a unique dataset on movie ticket sales in the French movie theaters to structurally estimate the seasonal underlying movie demand, while accounting for competition effects, weather shocks and seasonal sale promotions campaigns. We use a three-level nested logit that allows us to accurately estimate the underlying demand by movie genre and find a significant inter-movie genres competition. Moreover, we control for the congestion in movie theaters and highlight the existence of a trade-off between the demand expansion for movies and the business stealing effect between different movie genres due to the limited availability of screens in a movie theater. We use the estimated model to predict the movie revenues in various scenarios and we provide recommendations for optimal time release for movies. We also discuss the implications for the theater's strategy of movies portfolio diversification given the estimated substitution patterns between different genres.
Enache Andreea (PSE) Congestion and Market Expansion: Timing of New Movie Releases in Paris Theaters
Christophe Bellégo
Régulation et Environnement
Le 02/10/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
How to fight grand externalities without hurting the poor? We develop a mechanism design model for externality problems with redistribution goals. The welfare-optimal mechanism ties together individuals' choices on incomes and the externality, leading to income-dependent Pigouvian taxes. A policy reflecting aversion to inequity can optimally set externality taxes that are increasing or decreasing in income, yet preserving the net progression: the two tax rates adjust in opposite directions to preserve the income tax progression. Whether the Pigouvian level is exceeded and whether progressivity or regressivity arises depends on welfare weights on burdens between and within income groups, behavioral responses to incentives on the externality, and earnings distortions due to redistribution. We conclude with applications to (i) cars and (ii) electricity using individual-level register data to illustrate the magnitude of the main mechanisms.
Liski Matti (PSE) Pigouvian Income Taxation
Régulation et Environnement
Le 25/09/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Protecting species' habitats is the main policy tool employed across the globe in order to reduce biodiversity losses. These protections are hypothesized to conflict with private landowners' interests. We study the economic consequences of the most extensive and controversial piece of such environmental legislation in US history—the Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973. Using the most comprehensive data on species conservation efforts, land transactions, and building permits to date, we show evidence that on average the ESA does not affect regulated land markets in measurable and economically significant ways. We show that the Act's most stringent habitat protections lead to a slight increase in the value of residential properties on land that is just adjacent to protected areas. These findings mask heterogeneity at the species level, which we document. Further, we find no evidence of the ESA affecting building activity as measured by construction permits. Overall, even taking into account species level heterogeneity, the number of possibly negatively affected parcels is extremely small, suggesting that the capitalization of the economic impacts of the ESA through the land market channel are likely minor, despite potential delays to development through permitting, which we document.
Frank Eyal (PSE) *The Cost of Species Protection: The Land Market Impacts of the Endangered Species Act
Maximilian Auffhammer, David W. McLaughlin, Elisheba Spiller, David L. Sunding
Régulation et Environnement
Le 18/09/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Online marketplaces commonly employ a hybrid business model, wherein they are ver- tically integrated and sell their own products competing with third-party sellers on their platform. Free entry of these sellers may lead to the presence of harmful and illegal prod- ucts, which consumers are not able to differentiate from safe ones. We extend the model of Anderson and Bedre-Defolie (2021) allowing the platform to invest in screening of sell- ers to remove illegal third-party products. We find that seller screening has an ambiguous effect on entry on the platform, and a condition for a platform to engage in screening is that it accommodates entry. Also, we find that more integrated platforms tend to screen less. Moreover, a platform conducting seller screening sets higher commission fees, the level of which can decrease in platform’s degree of vertical integration in contrast with previous literature. From a welfare perspective, platforms invest too little in screening as compared to social optimum, and a regulation mandating higher screening intensity has an ambiguous effect on consumers’ surplus.
Gras Clément (PSE) Hybrid Platform Screening
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/09/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long-time horizons. Here, we utilize recent empirical findings from more than 1600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation including daily variability and extremes. Using an empirical approach which provides a robust lower-bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years due to historical carbon emissions and socioeconomic inertia (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11-29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to two degrees by sixfold over this near-term timeframe, and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately fifty percent and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, where reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
Wenz Leonie (PSE) The economic commitment of climate change
Régulation et Environnement
Le 12/06/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We study optimal consumption taxes when the magnitude of an
externality varies with the individuals who cause it but taxes must be
anonymous, e.g., urban fuel consumers imply greater damages than
rural ones but both face the same fuel tax. We provide a condition
for the validity of the targeting principle, according to which external
concerns only fall on the tax on the externality generating commodity.
When this condition holds, one can identify the equity/efficiency and
environmental contributions to this tax.
An illustration on France
suggests that Pigovian considerations explain most of the fuel tax.
Gauthier Stephane (PSE) Targeting taxes on local externalities
Régulation et Environnement
Le 05/06/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This study tackles a public finance issue on climate change: a carbon tax and government bonds to finance public spending for adaptation. This type of bond is known as “green bonds” and presents remarkable growth in the global market. We construct an asset-pricing model in which climate change stochastically damages the TFP growth rate. The government can control the risk of such economic damage through a carbon tax to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and government spending on adaptation. Additionally, the government raises funds by issuing bonds with different maturities. We demonstrate that green bonds yield term premiums in a dynamic economy if climate change has long-lasting economic impacts. This term premium on government bonds with different maturities serves as an arbitrage opportunity and enables the government to raise funds. We demonstrate that issuing green bonds can improve welfare compared to the balanced-budget policy.
SUZUKI Shiba (Seikei University) *Green Bonds and Term Premiums
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/05/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
"Climate policies have heterogeneous labour
market impacts across sectors and occupations. However, there are no
clear indexes to measure the worker's exposure to ambitious
climate policy. We propose an occupation-based approach to measure the
worker's vulnerability to climate policies. Using rich
establishment-level data for France, we construct a time-varying measure
of the carbon content of jobs for more than 400 occupations
over the period 2003-2018. We show that carbon intensive occupations
exhibit a mild catching-up in terms of emissions per worker, are
geographically concentrated and highly exposed to other structural
transformations (automation and trade). We then estimate
the extent to which the impact of energy prices, a proxy of climate
policies, is mediated by the occupational carbon intensity using a
shift-share instrument. Both wages and employment losses are
significantly larger for carbon intensive occupations, also when
we carefully control for the exposure to other structural shocks.
Importantly, a sector-based approach to measure vulnerability to climate
policies gives less clear and robust results on policy effects than an
occupation-based ones. "
VONA Francesco (Seikei University) *Climate Policy and the Carbon Content of Jobs
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/05/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
To overcome key challenges in environmental policy evaluation we use machine
learning based weather normalisation techniques to strip out the effect of weather
on air pollution estimates. Combined with Augmented Synthetic Control Methods
(ASCM) we provide a causal estimate of the impact of China’s decision to centralise
environmental policy enforcement. Focusing on Hebei province we find that the
recently introduced Central Environmental Inspection Policy led to a short term
reduction in PM2.5 and SO2 immediately after the inspection. However, within 3
months of the inspection team leaving, pollution levels had returned to previous levels.
Comparisons with Difference-in-Difference estimations show the importance of both
weather normalising and using an ASCM approach, particularly in the absence of
parallel pre-trends.
ELLIOTT Robert (Seikei University) *“Centralising the enforcement of environmental regulations: Using machine learning to aid policy evaluation in China”
Matt Cole, Bowen Lu, TuanVan Vu and Zongbo Shi
Régulation et Environnement
Le 10/05/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Yangsiyu
Abstract:
Whether regulation is good or bad for growth is a long-standing question in economics. In this paper, we study the impact of an environmental regulation on industrial firms’ productivity in China, examining not only firms in the highly-polluting industries but also those that are less polluting but still regulated “cleaner” firms. We show that doing so allows us to capture the net impact of environmental regulation on economic activity. Using a heterogeneous difference-in-differences approach, we find that the productivity of "cleaner" firms increases by 4%, while there is no effect on productivity for highly polluting firms. Firm exit, output effect, and process and practice innovations are the primary drivers of these productivity impacts, and the mechanisms differ between private firms and state-owned enterprises.
*******
Loris
Abstract:
The Amazon rainforest is emitting more carbon dioxide than it can absorb due to deforestation since 2021, leading to significant impacts on global warming. The loss of biodiversity due to land use change in the Amazon biome is also a major issue. Legal Amazon is an administrative area in Brazil that encompasses 64% of the Amazon biome and nine federal states. The Amazon Fund is the main international climate finance vehicle that operates in Legal Amazon, but its disbursements have decreased significantly in recent years due to disagreements between donors and the Brazilian government. This paper aims to assess the impact of the Amazon Fund's projects on reducing deforestation and other factors such as national environmental agency sanctions and agricultural production. By using satellite observations and microeconomic data, a panel dataset has been constructed to analyze the evolution of various environmental features, climate finance, regulation, and production from 2002 to 2020 across 760 municipalities in Legal Amazonia. A Panel Vector AutoRegression (PVAR) is used to model a stylized economic system in which variables can affect each other at different lags. The study's main findings suggest that the Amazon Fund's disbursements significantly reduce deforestation rates, with state-managed projects proving more effective than those managed by municipalities or universities. The most efficient projects involve land use planning, which includes the development and the protection of local autochthonous communities. Overall, the study highlights that the Amazon Fund's operates with a very low abatement cost (under $1 per ton of CO2).
YANGSIYU Lu (PSE) "Green finance and deforestation reduction in Brazil: a PVAR analysis of the Amazon Fund"
Régulation et Environnement
Le 17/04/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Promoting and maintaining competition in the online markets dominated by few, large platforms has been an elusive quest for governments and their competition authorities. In
this study, we offer the first systematic assessment of the quantitative effects of a series of
interventions taken across countries to curb Google’s dominance in search by limiting its use
as the default option. By exploiting the timing with which such interventions occurred in the
European Economic Area, Russia, and Turkey relative to control group countries, we study how
changes to the default settings on mobile devices impacted the penetration of different search
engines. Our findings show that in all of these three cases, the interventions were effective in
reducing the market share of Google. The causal impact of the public intervention amounts to
less than 2 percentage points in the European Economic Area, 7 percentage points in Russia,
and 12 percentage points in Turkey. These differences are driven by the nuances of the specific
interventions such as the size of the targeted group of users, local market characteristics, and
remedy designs.
DECAROLIS Francesco (PSE) *Competition and Defaults in Online Search
Régulation et Environnement
Le 03/04/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
"The Covid-19 crisis has demonstrated
the need for alternative data, available in real-time and with global coverage.
In that vein, this paper exploits daily infrared images taken from satellites
to track the economic activity in 42 advanced and developing countries. As
satellite images are an untapped data source in the economic literature so far,
this paper develops an innovative framework to read, clean, and exploit such
data. Specifically, we construct an algorithm based on the laws of physics and
machine learning techniques to detect the heat produced by cement plants in
activity. This allows us to monitor in near real-time (with one day lag) if the
cement plants are functioning. Using this information on more than 500 plants,
we construct a satellite-based index which tracks the activity in the cement
industry in each country. Given the predominant role of cement in construction,
empirical evidence suggests these satellite data significantly improve the
nowcasting of the activity in the construction sector compared to other
alternative indicators (PMI, Google Trends). "
BRICONGNE Jean-Charles, Lietti Benjamin (PSE) "Cementing the real-time economic monitoring using satellite infrared images"
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/03/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
"We investigate how management quality moderates the impact of carbon
pricing on Chinese firms. Based on interviews with managers and lead
engineers at manufacturing firms in Hubei and Beijing, we construct a
novel index on climate-change related management practices and link it
to firm data from various sources. We document that well-managed firms
are on average more productive and engage more in green innovation than
the rest. We conduct an event study of the introduction of a regional
cap-and-trade scheme for CO2 in Beijing and find that treated firms
reduced coal consumption more than control firms, but this effect is
statistically significant only for well-managed firms. In the absence of
such firms, our empirical estimates imply that aggregate coal use would
have increased rather than decreased following the introduction of
carbon pricing. This highlights the importance of good management
practices for market-based climate policies to be effective. "
WAGNER Ulrich () *Management Practices and Climate Policy in China
Régulation et Environnement
Le 20/03/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
"Risk management will be central to environmental and social progress in the coming decades as we face the interconnected global challenges of climate change, widespread biodiversity loss, and inequities in the impacts. Households and firms, communities and countries, all face rapidly escalating physical risks, as well as transition risks. To not only persevere through these generation-defining challenges, but transition to a world where people and the planet can thrive, insurance and risk transfer could be critical to enabling economic change, directing capital toward sustainable futures, facilitating needed investments, and providing inclusive and equitable financial protection. Is insurance up to the task? This talk will discuss innovations in insurance products, partnerships, and approaches that are being designed to support environmental and social goals."
KOUSKY Carolyn () *Can Insurance Help Solve Environmental and Social Challenges?
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/03/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Climate risk is a key driver of low agricultural productivity in poor countries. We use a cluster-randomized trial to evaluate a novel risk-mitigation approach: long-range forecasts that provide information about the onset of the Indian summer monsoon well in advance of its arrival. In contrast to traditional ex post risk coping approaches, this novel ex ante technology provides accurate information significantly before the monsoon's arrival, enabling farmers to alter major up front input decisions. Moreover, forecasts have the potential to be disseminated cheaply, even at scale. We assign 250 villages to one of three groups: a control group; a group that receives an opportunity to purchase the forecast; and a group that is offered insurance. We present preliminary results, including on farmers' willingness-to-pay for forecasts; how forecasts affect farmer beliefs and up-front investments; and benchmark these preliminary effects against the canonical ex post loss mitigation tool: index insurance.
BURLIG Fiona () *The value of forecasts: Experimental evidence from developing-country agriculture
Régulation et Environnement
Le 06/03/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Using a triple-difference estimator based on a 59-year-long panel of weather records paired with irrigation data around the Ogallala aquifer, we provide novel evidence that large-scale irrigation heterogeneously shifts the temperature distribution towards cooler temperatures during months of the growing season.
Cooling-by-irrigation propagates downwind and reduces the upper tail of the temperature distribution by up to 3°C in August, which has positive externalities on downwind crop yields ($120 million/y) and temperature-induced excess mortality ($240 million/y) that are of equal magnitude as the direct benefits of irrigation by enhancing heat tolerance of crops ($440 million/y). The observed cooling helps explain why the US has seen less warming, especially in very hot temperatures, than what climate models project. Our findings also highlight that weather shocks in highly irrigated areas are not exogenous but are influenced by human responses in the form of irrigation.
BRAUN Thomas () *Cooling Externality of Large-Scale Irrigation
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/02/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
While climate change is projected to deeply modify melting processes of solid water, the links between seasonal snow, mountain glaciers melt and downstream economic activities is still unclear. In an econometric analysis of melt water shocks and overall economic activity at subnational levels, I deepen the understanding of whether and through which channel hydrological conditions affect economic development. I construct a new data set of monthly melt water shocks based on snow cover and glaciers data and combine them with nighttime light intensity at the 0.1? grid cell level over the entire region of Himalayan-fed hydraulic sub-basins. The data set covers all months from 2000 to 2013. I estimate the change in month specific annual economic development in a hydraulic sub-basin as a function of current and past melt water shocks in the chain of upstream sub-basins. This paper provides further evidence that upstream hydrological conditions have causal effects on downstream economic development. The key findings are that (i) economic development are significantly dependent on seasonal melt water quantities, (ii) shocks in discharged melt water have causal impacts on downstream economic activities and (iii) agriculture is the main channel through which the impacts propagate through the economy.
UGINET Pierre () *Melt water, seasonality and economic activities. An example from South Asia.
Régulation et Environnement
Le 05/12/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
While water pollution control is key to sustainable development, the effectiveness of water regulations in India is controversial. In this paper, I study the effect of recent Indian urban sewerage infrastructure on ambient water quality and downstream infant mortality. I use the 2020-21 national inventory of sewage treatment plants which I match to in situ measures of water quality spanning 1991-2020 using a geo-referenced network of Indian rivers and to child births in downstream villages using watershed boundaries. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I compare water pollution and health related to agglomerations that started wastewater treatment from 2010 onward versus agglomeration where wastewater treatment is in project in 2020. I use estimators robust to heterogeneous effects in the case of a staggered difference-in-differences design where treatment effects vary over time. I find that wastewater treatment decreases significantly both water pollution -- measured by levels of fecal coliforms -- and infant mortality.
LEPAULT Claire () *Is urban wastewater treatment effective in India?
Régulation et Environnement
Le 28/11/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper tests the influence of short-run, exogenous spikes in atmospheric pollution on disease outcomes for children. I use Hanlon (2022)’s data on fog events in London to proxy short-run spikes in pollution since fogs trapped existing pollution close to the ground. The morbidity data, covering both the incidence (new
cases) of disease, sickness duration (time in the infirmary) and the appearance of complications, is reconstructed from rich, individual-level sickness information recorded by an orphanage in London, the Foundling Hospital, from 1897 to 1914. The infirmary records include over 6,000 sickness events from 235 different diseases for c. 1,000 children. I find evidence that pollution caused greater spread and also increased sickness duration for a wide range of respiratory diseases (catarrh, tonsillitis, influenza and bronchitis). Implications for the health transition are explored.
SCHNEIDER Eric (LSE) *Atmospheric Pollution and Child Morbidity from Respiratory Diseases: Evidence from the London Foundling Hospital 1897-1914
Régulation et Environnement
Le 21/11/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper shows that product design shapes search frictions and that intermediaries leverage this channel to increase their rents in the context of the U.S. municipal bond market. The majority of bonds are designed via negotiations between a local government and its underwriter. They are then traded in a decentralized market, where the underwriter often also acts as an intermediary. Exploiting variations in state regulations that limit government officials’ conflicts of interest, we provide evidence that bond design from the government’s perspective involves a trade-off between flexibility and liquidity, but the underwriter benefits from designing and trading complex bonds. Motivated by these findings, we build and estimate a model of bond origination and trades to quantify market inefficiency driven by underwriters’ role in intermediating trades and discuss policy implications.
BRANCACCIO Giulia (LSE) Search Frictions and Product Design in the Municipal Bond Market
Régulation et Environnement
Le 14/11/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
JHA Saumitra (LSE) *Blackouts in the Developing World: The Role of Wholesale Electricity Markets
Régulation et Environnement
Le 07/11/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Corporate social and environmental responsibility (CSR) is an increasingly important topic, with CSR claims sending a respectability signal to investors, regulators, and consumers. The objective of this article is to provide
empirical evidence on the impact of environmental CSR on the carbon intensity of corporate production. Within the growing literature on the effects of corporate CSR on firm’s performance, the literature on its economic impacts is more developed than that on environmental impacts. This difference can be explained in part by the difficulty of obtaining emissions data from companies in addition to their CSR activities. This paper is the first to use a CSR score based on survey data to determine the impact of environmental CSR on the carbon intensity of production. The aim is to assess whether environmental CSR activity is greenwashing or a genuine effort to reduce the company’s environmental footprint. The results suggest that CSR activity reflects an actual effort by firms to reduce the carbon intensity of their production and is not greenwashing. The article relies on a method that instruments CSR according to a two-step procedure. It allows the estimation to account for the endogeneity of CSR activities with respect to the carbon intensity of production.
KOCH Xavier (LSE) *The impact of Environmental Corporate Social Responsibility on carbon intensity: Evidence from French manufacturing firms
Régulation et Environnement
Le 17/10/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
An extensive climate policy literature provides various recommendations, but they are not supported democratically since the models employed consider either infinitely-lived individuals or normative social objectives (or both). In contrast, the present paper provides policy recommendations that are able to go through democratic processes. I develop an overlapping generation model with political process micro-foundations. I analyze how democratic policies, which are directly and indirectly related to climate change, differ from standard recommended policies. The novel politico-economic formula derived for the interest rate highlights that individual pure time preference, individual altruism toward descendants, and young generation political power are key determinants of democratic climate policy ambition.
GOUSSEBAILE Arnaud (LSE) *Democratic Climate Policies with Overlapping Generations
Régulation et Environnement
Le 10/10/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We analyze rational panic purchases in a two-period model that incorporates uncertainty about sellers’ capacity and buyers’ need for the good. Even if sellers have enough capacity to satisfy demand, there may be shortages because consumers panic purchase. We show that panics can only occur if consumers are risk averse or in noncompetitive equilibria. In noncompetitive equilibria, sellers initially price below opportunity cost to induce a panic and achieve higher profits later. Conventional wisdom for various policies may be overturned when it comes to preventing panic purchases: rationing, price caps, information policy, changes of consumption tax, and restrictions on resellers.
NIEDERMAYER Andras (LSE) *Rational Panic Purchases
Régulation et Environnement
Le 03/10/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Decarbonization will require a completely transformed electricity grid. We analyze a long-run model that captures crucial aspects of the electricity industry such as time-varying demand for electricity, intermittency of renewables, optimal use of storage technologies, and entry and exit of generation and storage capacity. Long-run effects can differ in surprising ways from short-run intuition: A carbon tax can increase electricity consumption; cheaper storage may lead to a decrease in renewable capacity by decreasing prices when renewables are operating; and an increase in electricity demand (e.g., electrification) may lead to a decrease in emissions if it induces sufficient renewable entry. Using hourly data for the U.S. market, we calibrate the model to evaluate decarbonization policies. A carbon price of $150 or more essentially eliminates carbon emissions. Given a modest decarbonization goal, a renewable subsidy performs better than a nuclear subsidy, but this ranking is reversed for an ambitious decarbonization goal. Policies promoting transmission or storage are unlikely to yield significant benefits
unless paired with subsidies for renewables. Electrifying 100% of car miles traveled (thereby eliminating gasoline vehicle carbon emissions) would increase electricity-sector carbon emissions by 23-27% if vehicles are charged at night, but could decrease electricity-sector carbon emissions if vehicles are charged during the day.
MANSUR Erin (LSE) *Decarbonization and Electrification in the Long Run
Régulation et Environnement
Le 26/09/2022 de 17:00:00 à 18:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop an optimal policy assignment rule that integrates two distinctive approaches commonly used in economics: targeting by observables and targeting through self-selection. Our method can be used with experimental or quasi-experimental data to identify who should be treated, be untreated, and self-select to achieve a policymaker's objective. Applying this method to a randomized controlled trial on a residential energy rebate program, we find that targeting that optimally exploits both observable data and self-selection outperforms conventional targeting for a utilitarian welfare function as well as welfare functions that balance the equity-efficiency trade-off. We highlight that the Local Average
Treatment Effect (LATE) framework (Imbens and Angrist, 1994) can be used to investigate the mechanism behind our approach. By estimating several key LATEs based on the random variation created by our experiment, we demonstrate how our method allows policymakers to identify whose self-selection would be valuable and harmful to social welfare.
ITO Koichiro (LSE) *Choosing Who Chooses: Selection-Driven Targeting in Energy Rebate Programs
Régulation et Environnement
Le 19/09/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
In this paper we investigate the Investor-State Dispute Resolution Settlement (ISDS) framework, which governs dispute resolution between foreign investors and host states in many bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. We show that ISDS delivers fair justice in a one-shot setting. In a repeated-interaction setting however, it is prone to collusion to the benefit of all parties except the host states. Three factors are determinant: First, the investors are the sole parties able to file cases; Second, arbitrators' earning prospects depend on the investors' filing cases; And finally, treaties leave substantial discretion to arbitration courts in their interpretation of treaties' provisions. We give conditions for pro-business collusion between investors and arbitrators to develop and we show how it makes it profitable for foreign investors to file high-stake claims against states in response to new environmental, social or health regulations. Further, we address regulatory chill and show how the fear of ISDS attacks can hold back welfare improving regulation in the host country. Finally, we extend the model to show how regulatory chill affect policy-making in other countries in which the investor operates with similar activities.
LAMBERT-MOGILIANSKY Ariane (LSE) *Pro-business arbitration with ISDS
Régulation et Environnement
Le 12/09/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
There is no broad scientific consensus on the impact of population dynamics such as population ageing on greenhouse gas emissions and consequently on global warming. Given that the analysis of the links between population and emissions is mainly carried out in an aggregated way, it is not possible to identify demographic heterogeneity in emissions patterns. While the studies using micro-data are able to disaggregate consumption by demographic characteristics, they often do not perform an analysis based on a true accounting of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a methodology for constructing age-specific carbon accounts, i.e. a decomposition of the carbon footprint by age. First, by estimating a household consumption model, I decompose a household's consumption by types of goods and by household members. Successively with an Input-Output analysis, I estimate the carbon footprint of each category of goods and services by age group and subsequently derive a decomposition of the carbon footprint of a given country by type of goods. The method proposed is highly flexible and can therefore be applied to any countries with micro data on household consumption. Here I present preliminary results for France, Japan, South Korea and Mexico between 1995 and 2018. According to the initial results, for all survey years, the consumption of high footprint goods is concentrated among those aged between 30–60-year-olds. The decomposition of consumption shows low emissions attributable to the youngest age group due to the scale effect that occurs when a household increases in size. Those aged over 60 years old have a lower volume of transport-related emissions, and hence a smaller carbon footprint. These results differ slightly by country, although they are broadly similar. While it is tempting to assume from these results that population ageing may facilitate decarbonisation due to lower consumption amongst the older age groups, the results presented here are static and do not take into account the dynamic nature of the issue. In the next steps, this study plans to analyse the carbon footprint by age, distinguishing between life cycle effects, cohort effects and technological dynamics.
CHERITEL Côme (LSE) Generational Carbon Accounts: decomposing the carbon footprint by age to assess the impact of age and generation on carbon emissions
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/06/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper formulates and estimates a household-level, billing-cycle water demand model under increasing block prices that accounts for the impact of monthly weather variation, the amount of vegetation on the household’s property, and customer-level heterogeneity in demand due to household demographics. The model utilizes US Census data on the distribution of household demographics in the utility’s service territory to recover the impact of these factors on water demand. An index of the amount of vegetation on the household’s property is obtained from NASA satellite data. The household-level demand models are used to compute the distribution of utility-level water demand and revenues for any possible price schedule. It can be used to design nonlinear pricing plans that achieve competing revenue or water conservation goals, which is crucial for water utilities to manage increasingly uncertain water availability yet still remain financially viable. Knowledge of how these demands differ across customers based on observable household characteristics can allow the utility to reduce the utility-wide revenue or sales risk it faces for any pricing plan. Knowledge of how the structure of demand varies across customers can be used to design personalized (based on observable household demographic characteristics) increasing block price schedules to further reduce the risk the utility faces on a system-wide basis. For the utilities considered, knowledge of the customer-level demographics that predict demand differences across households reduces the uncertainty in the utility’s system-wide revenues from 22 to 84 percent. Further reductions in the uncertainty in the utility’s system-wide revenues, in the range of 10 to 73 percent, are possible by re-designing the utility’s nonlinear price schedules to minimize the revenue risk it faces given the distribution of household-level demand in its service territory.
WOLAK Frank (Stanford) Nonlinear Price Schedules for Urban Water Utilities to Balance Revenue and Conservation Goals
Régulation et Environnement
Le 30/05/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
LOPEZ Angel Luis () Common Ownership and Technology Adoption
Régulation et Environnement
Le 23/05/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Does the complexity of multinationals' ownership structure serve tax avoidance? We use cross-country firm-level data to provide a description of the complexity determinants of ownership structure of multinational firms and show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to bunch around zero profit, consistent with tax avoidance by multinational firms.
François Manon () The complexity of multinational enterprises and tax avoidance
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/05/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
BOSSETTI Valentina (Unibocconi) Decarbonizing the economy, model projections and reality
Régulation et Environnement
Le 09/05/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, economic and climatic shocks, and clean technological progress. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database and solved with recursive methods, we estimate a net premium of 17% on the optimal carbon price today relative to a ‘straw man’ model with perfect capital mobility, fixed abatement costs and no uncertainty. The optimal path involves rapid emissions reductions and a best estimate of US$2.6 trillion of cumulative disinvestment in dirty capital – ‘stranded assets’. Another reason to price carbon at a high level today is to avoid climate damages in the short to medium run. These are ignored if the planning problem is construed as one of meeting a temperature constraint at minimum discounted abatement cost, which typifies contemporary climate policy discussions.
CAMPIGLIO Emanuele () Optimal transition to a low-carbon economy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 02/05/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Media organizations can shape news via their choice of coverage and slant. We measure the aggregate slant of the BBC from 2014-18, benchmark it against UK newspapers of known political leaning, and show that it took a sharp turn to the right in the runup to the Brexit vote. We disaggregate this shift across topics and show that roughly three-quarters of the measured change was due to stories related to the European Union, that 90% of that change was due to increased coverage relative to topic-specific slant, and that the change was driven by crowding out of left-leaning topics. We show even stronger results on a Leave/Remain rather than Labour/Conservative scale. We measure the causal effect of this shift using two different datasets and empirical approaches and both show causal increases of exposure to BBC news on Brexit vote intentions/vote shares, with effects sufficiently large that the absence of a change in the BBC’s slant would have made the Brexit vote too close to call.
LEVONYAN Vardges (UZH) BBC, Brexit, and Balanced Reporting
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/04/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Market definition, the first step in competition proceedings, establishes the perimeter of the competitive analysis. In this paper, we focus on market definition in the pharmaceutical industry, where the introduction of generics in different markets provide a sequence of quasi natural experiments involving a significant competitive shock for the molecule experiencing Loss of Exclusivity. We show that generic entry alters competitive constraints and generates market-wide effects. Paradoxically, entry may soften competitive pressure for some originators. We obtain these results by econometrically estimating time-varying price elasticities. We then apply the logic of the Hypothetical Monopolist Test to delineate antitrust markets under different market structures. Our results provide strong empirical support to the approach consisting in defining relevant markets contingent on the theory of harm. We discuss the relevance of these findings in the context of ongoing cases.
SIOTIS Georgios (UZH) Market Definition and Competition Policy Enforcement in the Pharmaceutical Industry
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/04/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
BARRET Scott (Columbia University) Property Rights to the (Linear) Ocean in Customary International Law
Régulation et Environnement
Le 28/03/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
DOBKOWITZ Sonja (Columbia University) Redistribution, Demand, and Sustainable Production
Régulation et Environnement
Le 21/03/2022 de 17:30:00 à 19:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
What is a feasible and efficient policy to regulate air pollution from vehicles? A Pigou-vian tax is technologically infeasible. Most countries instead rely on exhaust standards that limit air pollution emissions per mile for new vehicles. We assess the effectiveness and efficiency of these standards, which are the centerpiece of US Clean Air Act regulation of transportation, and counterfactual policies. We show that the air pollution emissions per mile of new US vehicles has fallen spectacularly, by over 99 percent, since standards began in 1967. Several research designs with a half century of data suggest that exhaust standards have caused most of this decline. Yet exhaust standards are not cost-effective in part because they fail to encourage scrap of older vehicles, which account for the majority of emissions. To study counterfactual policies, we develop an analytical and a quantitative model of the vehicle fleet. Analysis of these models suggests that tighter exhaust standards increase social welfare and that increasing registration fees on dirty vehicles yields even larger gains by accelerating scrap, though both reforms have complex effects on inequality.
SHAPIRO Joseph (Columbia University) Regulating Untaxable Externalities: Are Vehicle Air Pollution Standards Effective and Efficient?
Régulation et Environnement
Le 14/03/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
LAUKKANEN Marita (Columbia University) *Vehicle scrappage subsidies as a climate policy tool: program effects on new car emission intensity
Régulation et Environnement
Le 07/03/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Wagner Katherine (UC Berkeley) Technology Lock-In and Optimal Carbon Pricing
Régulation et Environnement
Le 21/02/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
DUGOUA Eugenie (UC Berkeley) Induced Innovation, Inventors, and the Energy Transition
Régulation et Environnement
Le 14/02/2022 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Fleurbaey Marc, Gilli Martino (UC Berkeley) Estimating the persistence of climate shocks, accounting for country-level heterogeneity
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/12/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We experimentally study procurement auctions when both quality and price matter. We compare two treatments where sellers compete on one dimension only (price or quality), with three two-dimensional treatments where sellers submit a price-quality bid, and the winner is determined by a score that combines the two offers. We find that, in the two-dimensional treatments, efficiency and buyer's utility are lower than their predicted levels. Estimates from a Quantal Response Equilibrium model suggest that increasing the dimensionality and the size of the suppliers' strategy space increases their tendency to bid suboptimally, thus undermining the theoretical superiority of more complex mechanisms.
CAMBONI Riccardo (UC Berkeley) Bidding on price and quality: An experiment on the complexity of scoring rule auctions
Régulation et Environnement
Le 06/12/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Rick VAN DER PLOEG (University of Oxford) Carbon pricing and portfolio diversification
Régulation et Environnement
Le 29/11/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Whether and how firms are affected by uncertainty revolving around the implementation of climate policy is crucial to understand firms’ behavior and short-term versus long-run planning as well as to shed light on the potential for systemic risk related with the coordinated implementation of ambitious climate policy. Hence, we develop a new index of climate policy uncertainty, covering the United States with monthly-level variation between 1990 and 2018. We analyze the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and firm-level outcomes such as share price, share price volatility, investments in research and development, and employment for all publicly-listed firms in the country. We find that climate policy uncertainty tends to affect negatively all these outcomes, and often more so than existing indices of economic policy uncertainty. Further, we leverage the fact that climate policy requires the transition from a “dirty” to a low-carbon equilibrium, with progress and setbacks along the road, which create a promising context to analyze short-term versus long-run planning and belief revision. Consistently with expectations, we find that climate policy uncertainty can lead to positive effects on the abovementioned outcomes in periods of setbacks and when uncertainty is driven by failure in the climate policy process rather than success.
DECHEZLEPRETRE Antoine (University of Oxford) Climate policy uncertainty and firms’ and investors’ behavior
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/11/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a novel econometric approach to measuring the economic impacts of climate change and use this method to estimate the effects of marginal climate change on profits in the U.S. agricultural sector. Our method is grounded in a theoretical framework where agents make production decisions and adaptive decisions to optimize expected profits with respect to the long-run local climate. We treat the climate as a distribution separately from weather, which is viewed as a draw from the distribution, and use full information about both for the estimation. In the first part of our analysis, we derive an analytical expression for the economic value of a marginal change in the climate that incorporates the expectation over the weather distribution that would result in a marginally changed climate. Next, we show how to empirically measure this marginal product in a simplified setting where economic value is determined by a vector of weather parameters. Finally, we apply this empirical framework to the climate of the modern United States using measures of agricultural profits and heating degree-days covering the period from 1954 to 2017. Our results indicate that climate impacts driven by changes in the expected value of the agricultural production function over a marginally changed weather distribution account for only a modest share of overall effects. This result highlights that climate change may not only affect economic outcomes through changing the distribution of weather, but also via effects on non-weather inputs to production technologies.
MAUE Casey (University of Oxford) Exact Integration of Climate and Weather in Estimating Climate Damages
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/11/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Asymmetric information in procurement entails double marginalization. The phenomenon is most severe when the buyer has all the bargaining power at the production stage, while it vanishes when the buyer and suppliers' weights are balanced. Vertical integration eliminates double marginalization and reduces the likelihood that the buyer purchases from independent suppliers.
Conditional on market foreclosure, the probability that final consumers are harmed is positive only if the buyer has more bargaining power when selecting suppliers than when negotiating over prices and quantities. Otherwise, the buyer's and consumers' interests are aligned.
Choné Philippe (University of Oxford) Double marginalization and vertical integration
Texte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 08/11/2021 de 17:00:00 à 18:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Global demands on freshwater resources are rising. While policy responses have focused on the design of local water institutions, distortions in the global market for agricultural goods can lead to overproduction of water-intensive goods in regions where water is relatively scarce. In this paper, I combine satellite- derived measures of water availability with a collection of spatial and admin- istrative datasets to provide globally-comprehensive, empirical estimates of the influence of policy distortions in agricultural markets on local water supplies. I find that interventions raising domestic agricultural output prices significantly lower local water availability, particularly for water-intensive crops and in lo- cations most suitable for those crops. I then quantify the impact that recent liberalization of agricultural markets has had on water resources. I find that in locations with declining water resources, water supplies would be 16% lower had liberalization not taken place. These water savings are largest in locations with higher baseline levels of water stress. In contrast, liberalization slightly re- duces water supplies in locations with low water stress. These findings suggest that reducing agricultural market distortions may alleviate global water stress by slowing extraction where water is most scarce.
CARLETON Tamma (University of Oxford) The global water footprint of distortionary agricultural policy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 18/10/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
MARBLER Alexander (University of Oxford) Water Scarcity, Agriculture, and Local Economic Activity: A Global Analysis
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/10/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We explore statistical power characteristics of various empirical strategies implemented to estimate the short-term health effect of air pollution. Through an extensive literature review, we retrieve the estimates and standard errors of a large number of studies published on this topic. We find that a non-negligible share of studies may suffer from low power issues and could thereby exaggerate effect sizes. The analysis of published results highlights potential shortcomings of the literature but does not enable to precisely identify drivers of theses is sues. We therefore run realistic simulations to investigate how statistical power varies with the treatment effect size, the number of observations, the proportion of treated units as well as the distribution of the outcome. Usual causal identi fication methods implemented in this literature, such as instrumental variable (IV), regression discontinuity design (RD) or difference-in-differences (DiD), may yield overestimated effect sizes. This issue is driven by the imprecision of the IV estimator and the small number of exogenous shocks usually exploited in DiD and RD designs. When focusing on particular groups such as the elderly or children, researchers should be aware that statistical power is lowered by the limited average count of health outcomes
ZABROCKI Leo (University of Oxford) Inference Design In Studies on Acute Health Effects of Air Pollution
BAGILET VincentTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/10/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We consider a multiproduct seller facing consumers who must search to learn prices and valuations. The equilibrium features choice overload: the larger the product line, the fewer consumers start searching. We provide conditions under which the seller offers too much or too little variety. We then allow the seller to position products or make recommendations, thereby introducing the possibility of directed search, and show that the seller may find it profitable to maintain some noise. Finally, we study the sellerís incentive to disclose product identity and extend our analysis to that of a platform choosing which sellers to host.
NOCKE Volker (University of Oxford) Consumer Search and Choice Overload
REY PatrickTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/09/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We look at the short and long term effects of a shale gas boom in an economy where energy can be produced with coal, or shale gas, or a clean energy source. In the short run, a shale gas revolution has counteracting effects on CO2 emissions: on the one hand it allows countries to substitute away from coal which in turn reduces CO2 emissions everything else equal; on the other hand the shale gas boom may increase pollution as it increases the scale of aggregate production. In the long run a shale gas boom tends to increase CO2 emissions as it induces Örms to direct innovation away from clean innovation towards shale gas innovation, and we show the possibility of an infinitely delayed switch from shale gas to clean energy. We then derive conditions on the parameters under which, as a result of the above trade-off, the shale gas revolution reduces emissions in the short-run but increases emissions in the long-run. We then use data on electricity production to calibrate the model.
HEMOUS David (University of Oxford) Climate Change, Directed Innovation and Energy Transition: The Long-run Consequences of the Shale Gas RevolutionTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 20/09/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We introduce advertising congestion along with a time-use model of consumer choice among media. Both consumers and advertisers multi-home. Higher equilibrium advertising levels ensue on less popular media platforms because platforms treat consumer attention as a common property resource: smaller platforms internalize less the congestion from advertising and so advertise more. Platform entry raises the ad nuisance price to consumers and diminishes the quality of the consumption experience on all platforms. With symmetric
platforms, entry still leads to higher consumer benefits. However, entry of less attractive platforms can increase ad nuisance levels so much that consumers are worse off.
PEITZ Martin (University of Oxford) Ad clutter, time use, and media diversity
ANDERSON Simon P.Texte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/09/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Should the largest cities be the most polluting? On the one hand, spatial concentration of economic activities brings welfare gains through agglomeration economies and increased local real wages. On the other hand, aggregating too much polluting activities in the same place leads to lower air quality and detrimental effects on health and productivity of local workers. Building on a spatial general equilibrium model, featuring endogenous pollution, trade and between-cities migration, I investigate welfare effects of the spatial heterogeneity of local stringencies resulting from current air pollutants regulations. I calibrate the model using French data and show that current emission policies target the most populated cities. As a result, these cities are less polluting and relatively larger than what they would be under a spatially uniform policy stringency. However I also find that taking into account productivity and amenity intrinsic local endowments could lead to higher welfare gains.
JEGARD Martin (University of Oxford) An Optimal Distribution of Polluting Activities Across Space: An Application to FranceTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 07/06/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Consider a global institution with an exogenous budget that can re- ward each developing country based on its tax rate on the combustion of a given fossil fuel. I develop a model in which countries differ in the co-benefits that they derive from emissions reductions and also in their aversion to taxing carbon. Assuming a uniform type distribution and linear demand functions for the fossil fuel, I provide an explicit solution for the mechanism that maximises global welfare.
It can be implemented through a reward payment function of the following form: each country is rewarded based on how much (if at all) its carbon tax exceeds a cer- tain reference level. The reward payment is quadratic in this amount if the global institution’s budget is small. For large budgets, there is an additional term that is linear in the amount that the carbon tax exceeds the reference level. Empirical calibrations suggest that carbon pricing reward funds could play a valuable role if the world mobilizes substan- tial additional funding for supporting emissions reductions in developing countries.
STERN Lennart (University of Oxford) Rewarding countries for pricing carbon emissions: optimal mechanisms under exogenous budgetsTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 31/05/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper investigates how majority voting over a carbon tax is impacted by the distribution of the tax burden. I introduce both income and urban-rural inequalities in a majority voting framework. To capture heterogeneity in salient carbon-intensive expenditures, such as car fuel or heating energy, urbans and rurals differ by the amount of subsistence polluting good they must consume. The analytical results show (i) polarization of the vote around the urban-rural divide can occur when the necessity consumption of carbon-intensive good is suffciently large; (ii) the majority tax rate can be over- or under-effcient, compared to the pigouvian rate, depending on the relative size of the income and the urban-rural inequalities.
Calibrating the model using Household Budget Survey micro-data for France, I investigate how comple- mentary policies affect the vote over carbon tax. Recycling the tax revenue lump-sum has a small but positive effect on the majority voting tax. The adopted tax rises both with a subsidy policy reducing polluting ne- cessity consumption for the rural population e.g. subsidizing effciency-improving heating renovations and with a policy reducing the proportion of rurals. But the former additionally reduces the political polarization around the urban-rural divide, while the later exacerbates it. Future work analyzes whether some European countries are more likely to be politically affected by the distributional impacts of the urban-rural divide and income inequality, using the European data available in the Eurostat HBS dataset.
Young Brun Marie (University of Oxford) The political economy of carbon taxation with vertical and horizontal inequality
Régulation et Environnement
Le 17/05/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We characterize and compare the private and social incentives to collect consumer data by a
vertically-integrated online intermediary who competes with third-party sellers listed on its platform
and is required by regulation to share with rivals all the information it gathers. With linear intermediation fees and price competition, the intermediary over-invests in accuracy compared to the social optimum when the intra-platform competition is sufficiently weak and when demand is not too responsive to quality. By contrast, the intermediary tends to under-invest in accuracy when the intra-platform competition is strong enough, and demand is sufficiently responsive to quality. With quantity competition, the intermediary always over-invests in accuracy. Importantly, when consumers exhibit privacy concerns, the over-investment problem worsens, whereas the under-investment problem mitigates. We also investigate the impact of alternative (non-linear) contractual arrangements.
PICCOLO Salvatore (University of Bergamo) On the Private and Social Value of Consumer Datain Vertically-Integrated Platform Markets
Co-authors : Jorge Padilla, Helder VasconcelosTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 10/05/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Online marketplaces, such as Amazon, or online travel agencies, such as Booking.com, greatly expand consumer information about market offers, but also raise sellers’ marginal costs by charging high commissions. To prevent show-rooming, platforms adopted price parity clauses, which restrict sellers’ ability to offer lower prices in alternative sales channels. Whether to uphold, reform, or ban price parity has been at the center of the policy debate, but so far little consensus has emerged. In this paper, we investigate a natural alternative to lifting price parity; namely, we study how to optimally cap platforms’ commissions. The optimal cap reflects the Pigouvian precept according to which the platform should not charge fees greater than the externality that its presence generates on other market participants. Employing techniques from extreme-value theory, we are able to express the optimal cap in terms of observable quantities. In an application to online travel agencies, we find that current average fees are welfare increasing only if platforms at least double consumers’ consideration sets (relative to alternative ways of gathering information online). This suggests that, in some markets, regulation capping commissions should bind if optimally set.
GOMES Joseph Flavian (University of Bergamo) Regulating Platform Fees under Price Parity
Co-author : Andrea MantovaniTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 03/05/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
An imperfectly-informed regulator needs to procure multiple units of some good (e.g., green energy, market liquidity, pollution reduction, land conservation) that can be produced with heterogeneous technologies at various costs. How should she procure these units? Should she run technology specific or technology neutral auctions? Should she allow for partial separation across technologies (technology banding or minimum technology quo tas)? Should she instead post separate prices for each technology? What are the trade-offs involved? We find that one size does not fit all: the preferred instrument depends on the nature of the available technologies, the extent of information asymmetry regarding their costs, the costs of public funds, and the degree of market power. Using Spanish data on recently deployed renewable energies across the country, we illustrate how our theory can shed light on how to more effectively procure these technologies.
FABRA Natalia (University of Bergamo) Technology Neutral vs. Technology Specific Procurement
Co-author : Juan Pablo MonteroTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 12/04/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper sheds light on lobbying activities undertaken by environmental non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) in the European Union (EU), and in particular at the European Commission (EC). With a general theoretical analysis, I find that when NGOs choose their level of
lobbying effort, they can either cooperate between them or choose to differentiate, depending
on the form of legislative change functions. I use data from the EU Transparency Register
and EC meetings information to empirically determine whether NGOs’ lobbying efforts at the
EC are strategic complements or substitutes. I find evidence for cooperation, NGOs’ lobbying
efforts reinforce one another. It means that others’ effort increases sufficiently the marginal
legislative change due to a given NGO’s effort for this NGO to be willing to increase its effort
over subjects for which other NGOs advocate more and to decrease its effort over subjects for
which other NGOs advocate less. I also study the selection process of NGOs into the ones
attending meeting with EC members and the others. It shows that meeting holding NGOs
are bigger and spend more in lobbying activities. However, their financial situation does not
impact their specialization, or diversification, level.
LOGEART Rosanne (University of Bergamo) The Environmental Safeguards Team: An Analysis of NGOs' Advocacy at the European CommissionTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 29/03/2021 de 12:00:00 à 12:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
How can citizens be motivated to demand accountability in the management of public revenues? We use a video survey experiment to provide information, and employ role models to provide encouragement and motivation to act. The experiment focused on petroleum revenue management in Ghana and included over 2300 respondents. Providing information significantly increased satisfaction with current revenue management, though treated participants remained dissatisfied on average. We also found increased intention to demand more accountability through greater debate. The role models had an additional effect: they increased the sense that an individual can influence how petroleum revenues are used; the intention to contact media and to vote differently to ensure better accountability. These changes, however, did not persist, and a follow-up with 925 respondents 2.5 years later later showed few differences between the control and the treated groups. The experiment demonstrates that providing relevant information affects attitudes and planned behavior in the short term, and that role models give valuable encouragement for behavioral change.
BLOCH Francis (PSE) Follow the leader: Using videos to make information on resource revenue management more relevantTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/03/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop models of markets with procrastinating consumers when competition operates — or is supposed to operate — both through the initial selection of providers and through the possibility of switching providers. As in other work, consumers fail to switch to better options after signing up with a firm, so at that stage they exert little downward pressure on the prices they pay. Unlike in other work, however, consumers — falsely expecting to do still better in the future — are not keen on starting with the best available offer, so at this stage they do not generate much price competition either. In fact, a competition paradox results: an increase in the number of firms or the intensity of marketing increases the frequency with which a consumer receives switching offers, so it facilitates procrastination and thereby potentially raises prices. By implication, continuous changes in the environment can, through a self-reinforcing entry or marketing process, lead to discontinuous changes in market outcomes. Sign-up deals serve their classically hypothesized role of returning ex-post profits to consumers extremely poorly, while in other senses they exacerbate the failure of price competition.
HEIDHUES Paul (PSE) Procrastination MarketsTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/03/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
AMBER Stefan (TSE) Environmental markets exacerbate inequalitiesTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 08/03/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Chancel Lucas () Global carbon inequalityTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 01/03/2021 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Alliances of buyers to negotiate input prices with suppliers are commonplace. Using pre- and post-alliances data on household purchases of bottled water, I develop a struc tural model of bilateral oligopoly to estimate the effects of alliances formed by retailers on their bargaining power vis-à-vis manufacturers and retail prices paid by consumers. Results provide evidence of a countervailing buyer power effect that reduces retail prices by roughly 7%. Exploring determinants of buyer power, I find that changes in retailers’ bargaining ability play an important role in the countervailing force exerted by buyer alliances which, absent this effect, would have harmed retailers.
MOLINA Hugo () Buyer Alliances in Vertically Related MarketsTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 14/12/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
REGUANT Mar () *
Régulation et Environnement
Le 07/12/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper provides a theory of strategic innovation project choice by incumbents and start-ups. We show that prohibiting killer acquisitions strictly reduces the variety of innovation projects. By contrast, we find that prohibiting other acquisitions only has a weakly negative innovation effect, and we provide conditions under which the
effect is zero. Furthermore, for both killer and other acquisitions, we identify market conditions under which the innovation effect is small, so that prohibiting acquisitions to enhance competition would be justified.
SCHMUTZLER Armin () Killer Acquisitions and Beyond: Policy Effects on Innovation Strategies
Igor Letina, Regina SeibelTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 30/11/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Existing evidence shows that R&D tax incentives boost countries' private sector R&D. As multinational enterprises (MNEs) account for nearly all private sector innovations, it is unclear, however, whether firms engage in genuinely new R&D or whether R&D is reallocated across borders. Drawing on data on unconsolidated R&D activity of MNEs in Europe, we show that R&D tax incentives serve as beggar-thy-neighbor instruments: More generous tax incentives in one country increase MNEs' R&D investments in affiliates located there, while lowering R&D investments in affiliates of the same MNE group located in other countries. Globally, firms hardly respond to changed R&D tax incentives.
RIEDEL Nadine () Cross-Border Effects of R&D Tax IncentivesTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 23/11/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a model with
competing retailers selling both national brand and private label products to analyze the effect of a ban on input price discrimination on final prices, in a secret contracting environment. We show that, when discrim- ination is allowed, tariffs are cost-based. A a ban on input price discrimination affects the input price of national brand products and leaves that of private label products unaffected. A reform authorizing input price discrimination took place in France in 2008 and our paper uses this natural experiment to test our predic- tions. Using a consumer panel dataset of food prices in France over the period 2006-2010, we run a difference-in-differences analysis and show that on average the reform has led to a decrease in prices of national brands by 3.36% compared to private labels.
ALLAIN Marie-Laure () The Effect of Input Price Discrimination on Retail Prices: Theory and Evidence from France.
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/11/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
NGOs often vary in terms of how radical they are. In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of NGO discourses in bringing about social change. We focus on animal advocacy: welfarist NGOs primarily seek to improve the conditions in which animals are raised and reduce meat consumption, while abolitionist NGOs categorically reject animal use and call for a vegan society. We design an experiment to study the respective impact of welfarist and abolitionist discourses on participants’ beliefs regarding pro-meat justifications and their actions, namely their propensity to engage in the short-run in animal welfare (charity donation, petition against intensive farming) and plant-based diets (subscription to a newsletter promoting plant-based diets, petition supporting vegetarian meals). We first show that both welfarist and abolitionist discourses significantly undermine participants’ pro-meat justifications. Second, the welfarist discourse does not significantly affect participants’ actions, while we detect a potential backlash effect of the abolitionist discourse. We show that the NGOs’ positive standard effect on actions through the change in beliefs is outweighed by a negative behavioral response to the discourses (reactance effect). Last, greater public-good contributions are associated with greater engagement in animal welfare in the presence of an NGO discourse.
ESPINOSA Romain () Moderate vs. Radical NGOsTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 09/11/2020 de 15:00:00 à 16:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
BIGLAISER Gary () Should I stay or should I go? Migrating away from an incumbent platform
Régulation et Environnement
Le 19/10/2020 de 17:30:00 à 18:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a simple cross-sectional research design to identify causal effects that is robust to unobservable heterogeneity. When many observational units are dense in physical space, it may be sufficient to regress the “spatial first differences” (SFD) of the outcome on the treatment and omit all covariates. This approach is conceptually similar to first differencing approaches in time-series or panel models, except the index for time is replaced with an index for locations in space. The SFD design identifies plausibly causal effects, even when no instruments are available, so long as local changes in the treatment and unobservable confounders are not systematically correlated between immediately adjacent neighbors. We demonstrate the SFD approach by recovering new cross-sectional estimates for the effects of time-invariant geographic factors, soil and climate, on long-run average crop productivities across US counties — relationships that are notoriously confounded by unobservables but crucial for guiding economic decisions, such as land management and climate policy.
HSIANG Solomon () Accounting for Unobservable Heterogeneity in Cross Section Using Spatial First Differences
Hannah Druckenmiller
Régulation et Environnement
Le 12/10/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Maritime traffic is expected to increase in the coming years due to the growth in international trade and global tourism. Today's residents of port cities benefit from the economic activity induced by maritime activities, but they also suffer from local air pollution externalities, which have triggered local public campaigns and media attention in the recent period. How much does maritime traffic contribute to local air pollution and health damages? We address this question using an exact matching procedure suited to time series data from Marseille, France's largest port city. We gathered detailed hourly and daily data on boat traffic, weather, air pollution, mortality and emergency admissions in Marseille.
We find that nitrogen dioxide and particulate matters concentrations are on average 2-3% higher than the baseline average in hours following a boat arrival or departure at the port located in the city center, compared to comparable hours with no boat traffic. The results seem to be driven by passenger boats rather than freight boats. At the daily level yet, we failed to detect a significant impact of boat traffic on short-term measures of cardio-vascular and respiratory mortality and morbidity. Future research is needed to investigate impacts at the neighborhood-level, for more subtle morbidity outcomes and in the longer term.
LEROUTIER Marion () The Short-Run Effects of Maritime Traffic on Air Pollution and Health: evidence from Marseille, France
Leo Zabrocki and Marie Abele Bind
Régulation et Environnement
Le 05/10/2020 de 17:30:00 à 18:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper shows that greater global spatial correlation of productivities can increase crosscountry welfare dispersion by increasing the correlation between a country’s productivity and its gains from trade. We causally validate this prediction using a global climatic phenomenon as a natural experiment. We ?nd that gains from trade in cereals over the last half-century were larger for more productive countries and smaller for less productive countries when cereal productivity was more spatially correlated. Incorporating this role for spatial interdependence into a projection of climate-change impacts raises projected international inequality, with higher welfare losses across most of Africa.
MENG Kyle () Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate
Jonathan I. Dingel Chicago Booth & NBER, Solomon M. Hsiang UC Berkeley & NBERTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 21/09/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Every government that controls an exhaustible resource must decide whether toexploit it or to conserve and thereby let the subsequent government decide whetherto exploit or conserve. This paper develops a model of this situation and showswhen a small probability that some future government will exploit has a multipliere§ect on earlier decisions. The multiplier can be taken advantage of by a lobbypaying for exploitation, or by a donor compensating for conservation. The analysisalso uncovers when compensations are optimally o§ered to the president, the partyin power, the general public, or to the lobby group.
HARSTAD Bard () THE CONSERVATION MULTIPLIER
Régulation et Environnement
Le 07/09/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper presents a first model integrating the relation between biodiversity loss and zoonose
pandemic risks in a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemics
is modeled as Poissonian leaps in economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic
and epidemiological dynamics in two ways: first (prevention), by deciding to preserve a greater
quantity of biodiversity, thus decreasing the probability of a pandemic occurring, and second
(mitigation), by reducing the death toll through a confinement policy. The class of social welfare
functional considered has, as polar cases, a total utilitarian and an average utilitarian
specifications. It implicitly considers, at the same time, the effects of policies on mortality and on
the productive capacity of the country. Thanks to the Epstein-Zin specification of preferences, we
disantangle risk aversion and fluctuation aversion. The model is explicitly solved and the optimal
policy completely described. The qualitative dependence of the optimal policy on natural,
productivity and preference parameters is discussed. In particular the optimal lockdown is shown
to be more severe in societies valuing more human life, and the optimal biodiversity conservation
is shown to be more relevant for more “forward looking” societies, with a small discount rate and
a high degree of altruism towards individuals of future generations. We also show that societies
accepting a large welfare loss to mitigate the pandemics are also societies doing a lot of
prevention. After calibrating the model with COVID-19 pandemic data we compare the mitigation
efforts predicted by the model with those of the recent literature and we study the optimal
prevention-mitigation policy mix.
SCHUBERT Katheline () Prevention and Mitigation of Epidemics: Biodiversity Conservation and Confinement Policies
E. Augeraud-Véron, G. Fabbbri
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/06/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a theory of institutional transition from dictatorship to minority dominant-based regimes in resource-dependent economies. We depart from the standard political transition framework à la Acemoglu-Robinson in four essential ways: (i) population is heterogeneous, there is a minority/majority split, heterogeneity being generic, simply reflecting subgroup size; (ii) there is no median voter in the post-dictatorship period, political and economic competition is favorable to the minority (fiscal particularism); (iii) (windfall) natural resources are introduced, and (iv) we distinguish between labor income and resources, and labor supply is endogenous. We first document empirically fiscal particularism, its connection with natural resource endowment, and the impact of both on revolutionary bursts. Second, we construct a full-fledged model incorporating the four characteristics outlined above. We show, among others, that polarization is a sufficient condition for revolutions, while natural resource rents are not although they do matter when polarization is low. In agreement with our empirical facts, countries engaging in revolutions tend to be slightly less resource-rich than other countries. We also outline the interplay between natural resource rents, polarization and labor market conditions at the dawn of institutional change. Our theory is appropriate to understand the institutional dynamics of highly homogeneous resource-rich countries which, after a post-independence autocratic regime, turn to be dominated by minorities.
MELINDI-GHIDI Paolo () Particularism, dominant minorities and institutional change
Raouf Boucekkine, Rodolphe DesbordesTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/06/2020 de 15:00:00 à 16:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper proposes a dynamic approach to modeling opportunism in vertical contracting between an upstream monopolist and competing downstream firms. Unlike previous literature on opportunism which has focused on games in which the upstream firm makes simultaneous secret offers to the downstream firms, we model opportunism as a consequence of recontracting in an infinite-horizon continuous-time model. We find that the extent of opportunism depends on the absolute and relative reaction speeds of the different supplier-retailer pairs and on the firms' discount rate. Asymmetries in reaction speeds across supplier-retailer pairs can alleviate the opportunism problem.
Miklos-Thal Jeanine () Opportunism in Multilateral Vertical Contracting: A Dynamic Perspective
Jihwan Do (University of Rochester)
Régulation et Environnement
Le 08/06/2020 de 14:00:00 à 15:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The nitrogen cycle is one of the most perturbed geo-chemical cycles on earth. Human activity, mainly through intensive farming, releases nitrogen by-products such as nitrates and ammonium in the environment where they have wide ranging impacts on human health, biodiversity and climate change. One of the earliest and most ambitious regulation of nitrogen use in the world is the EU Nitrate Directive. The EU Nitrate Directive not only sets limitations on the amount and timing of application of nitrogen but also imposes the adoption of modern tools of nitrogen management in an effort to enhance nitrogen use efficiency. We leverage the geographical and temporal variation in the implementation of the Nitrate Directive to estimate its causal effects on water quality and biodiversity, and on farmers' practices, Nitrogen Use Efficiency, productivity and profits in a Difference In Difference (DID) framework. We modify the DID estimator to account for the existence of diffusion effects along river streams and for the non-point source nature of pollution by nitrates. We find that the EU Nitrate Directive reduced the concentration of nitrates in surface water by 1.23 milligrams per liter, a decrease of 8%. We find a clear dose-response relationship, with higher impacts where more of the upstream area is covered by the Directive. We also find that other biochemical indicators, as well as biodiversity, as measured by the number of fish and fish species, also improved thanks to the Directive. In ongoing work, we find suggestive evidence that the Directive managed to improve farmers' nitrogen use efficiency and productivity and did not decrease their profits.
CHABE-FERRET Sylvain () Water Quality, Policy Diffusion Effects and Farmers' Behavior
Régulation et Environnement
Le 25/05/2020 de 14:00:00 à 15:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a theory of institutional transition from dictatorship to minority dominant-based regimes in resource-dependent economies. We depart from the standard political transition framework à la Acemoglu-Robinson in four essential ways: (i) population is heterogeneous, there is a minority/majority split, heterogeneity being generic, simply reflecting subgroup size; (ii) there is no median voter in the post-dictatorship period, political and economic competition is favorable to the minority (fiscal particularism); (iii) (windfall) natural resources are introduced, and (iv) we distinguish between labor income and resources, and labor supply is endogenous. We first document empirically fiscal particularism, its connection with natural resource endowment, and the impact of both on revolutionary bursts. Second, we construct a full-fledged model incorporating the four characteristics outlined above. We show, among others, that polarization is a sufficient condition for revolutions, while natural resource rents are not although they do matter when polarization is low. In agreement with our empirical facts, countries engaging in revolutions tend to be slightly less resource-rich than other countries. We also outline the interplay between natural resource rents, polarization and labor market conditions at the dawn of institutional change. Our theory is appropriate to understand the institutional dynamics of highly homogeneous resource-rich countries which, after a post-independence autocratic regime, turn to be dominated by minorities.
MELINDI-GHIDI Paolo () Particularism, dominant minorities and institutional change
Raouf Boucekkine, Rodolphe DesbordesTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 18/05/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
CRAWFORD Gregory () ANNULE
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/05/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
PICCOLO Salvatore () ANNULE
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/05/2020 de 14:00:00 à 15:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Finding strategies to bridge the digital divide has been a major goal of public policy over the last decades. Accordingly, multiple demand-side interventions have been implemented to decrease Internet adoption barriers. In this paper, we assess the impact on internet adoption from a pricing subsidy to low-income households implemented by the Colombian government during the period 2012-2014. This is not a straightforward exercise as not all consumers in a small geographic region are offered the same plans and, more prohibitively, data on the size of the targeted market are not available. We develop a method that allows us to estimate a structural demand model of household preferences for Internet services and to gauge the effects of the subsidy policy while overcoming these limitations. We find that households present heterogeneity with respect to price sensitivity and that their adoption decisions are driven by the type of ISP (i.e., national or local provider) and the type of service (i.e., broadband or narrowband). We find that the price subsidy (of
12%) resulted in a 33% point increase in internet adoption among low-income consumers. The largest impact was in markets that had higher average coverage prior to the subsidy. Counterfactual results show that increasing the reliability of the service would increase adoption by almost as much as a price subsidy and would be most beneficial to households in less technically savvy markets. Our findings suggest that pricing subsidies are effective in closing the digital divide, but that policies focused on increasing the reliability of services are equally important.
SOVINSKY Michelle () ANNULE - Internet (Power) to the People: The Impact of Demand-side Subsidies in Colombia
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/04/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
JEGARD Martin () ANNULE
Régulation et Environnement
Le 20/04/2020 de 14:00:00 à 15:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper proposes to treat inequality as an economic externality.
Doing so allows us to introduce the societal effects of income inequality into simple welfarist models, wherein these effects are generally omitted. Novel policy implications are illustrated through an optimal income taxation model: resulting optimal income tax rates become unambiguously more progressive with a negative inequality externality, top optimal tax rates are shown to be particularly susceptible to the inequality externality, and optimal rates above the revenue-maximizing Laffer rate are observed. Our findings indicate that the magnitude of the inequality externality could be a significant factor in optimal policy design.
STOSTAD Morten () Inequality as an Externality: Consequences for Tax Design
Régulation et Environnement
Le 30/03/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
CALEL Raphaël () ANNULE
Régulation et Environnement
Le 23/03/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper seeks to evaluate the effect of energy taxes on the economic and environmental performance of manufacturing firms. We examine these issues in the context of Finland’s green energy tax reform that substantially increased the excise taxes on energy inputs, with the aim of promoting energy efficiency and reducing CO2-emissions. The preparation of the tax reform was accompanied by controversy over the predicted effects on manufacturing firm competitiveness, with the consequence that firms above a certain energy tax threshold were granted an exemption from energy taxes. While firms below the threshold pay energy taxes in full, firms above the threshold are refunded up to 85 percent of their energy taxes. Exempt and non-exempt firms, and in particular plants within these firms, can be otherwise very similar. The exemption rule allows us to compare plants that operate in the same manufacturing sectors and have otherwise similar history, but have been subject to different effective tax rates since the tax reform. Overall the results are most compatible with no important effect of the energy tax refund on employees, wages or energy use on average, and, if anything, a negative impact on gross output and energy efficiency.
LAUKKANEN Marita () ANNULE. Energy Taxes and Manufacturing Firm Performance: Evidence from Finland's Green Tax Reform
Kimmo Ollikka
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/03/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
FISHMAN Arthur () ANNULE
Régulation et Environnement
Le 09/03/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
A carbon tax has been widely discussed as a way of reducing fossil fuel use and mitigating climate change, generally in a static framework. Unlike standard goods that can be produced, oil is an exhaustible resource. Parts of its price reflects scarcity rents, i.e., the fact that there is limited availability. We highlight important dynamic aspects of a global carbon tax, which will reallocate consumption through time: some of the initial reduction in consumption will be offset through higher consumption later on. Only reserves with high enough extraction cost will be priced out of the market. Using data from a large proprietary database of field-level oil data, we show that carbon prices even as high as 200 dollars per ton of CO2 will only reduce cumulative emissions from oil by 4% as the supply curve is very steep for high oil prices and few reserves drop out. The supply curve flattens out for lower price, and the effect of an increased carbon tax becomes larger. For example, a carbon price of 600 dollars would reduce cumulative emissions by 60%. On the flip side, a global cap and trade system that limits global extraction by a modest amount like 4% expropriates a large fraction of scarcity rents and would imply a high permit price of $200. The tax incidence varies over time: initially, about 75% of the carbon price will be passed on to consumers, but this share declines through time and even becomes negative as oil prices will drop in future years relative to a case of no carbon tax. The net present value of producer and consumer surplus decrease by roughly equal amounts, which are almost entirely offset by increased tax revenues.
SCHLENKER Wolfram () Coase, Hotelling and Pigou: The Incidence of a Carbon Tax and CO2 Emissions
Geoffrey Heal
Régulation et Environnement
Le 02/03/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We consider a model in which firms sell differentiated products, and consumers are interested in buying repeatedly over time but need to search for price and product information. Firms and consumers turn over at an exogenous rate. We show that provided the search cost is not too large, the market exhibits pure strategy price dispersion. Specifically, older firms charge higher prices because they face a larger and `better-matched' demand. The fact that sellers gradually raise their prices over time also leads to rich consumer search and purchase dynamics. For example, consumers may initially search a lot for a product, return to the seller and buy for several periods, but then faced with successive price increases quit the firm and search again for a new product. We also provide conditions under which the ability of sellers to contact past customers and offer them personalized prices leads to higher consumer surplus.
RHODES Andrew () Dynamic Consumer Search
Régulation et Environnement
Le 24/02/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Recent environmental policies favor the 'pollutant-payer' Principle. This Principle points out the pollutant financial liability for eventual incident induced by its activities. Investing in technological innovations generates uncertainty on the future returns, as well as on the damages that such innovations could involve and on the cost to pay in case of troubles. To reduce this uncertainty, the firm has the opportunity to acquire information, for example through research activities, on its project's potential consequences on human health and on the environment. However, in their efforts to obtain and/or to maintain a marketing authorization with the Regulator affairs, firms may develop specific strategies to exploit scientific uncertainty. They may produce favorable scientific findings. In case of accident, the firm having this type of behavior can be legally charged. We then analyze whether liability rules and tort law incentive the firm both to invest in research and development in order to reduce the uncertainty and to decrease miscommunication on the results. We find that the firm's decision to stop or continue to sell its product depends on the levels of precision of the exogenous and of the endogenous information she receives, and on the ratio between marginal benefit and damages from maintaining the product in the future. We then understand that the firm's decision to adopt a lobby behavior depends on its expected payoff, its level of research, and its belief being sentenced when she has chosen to adopt a lobby behavior. Finally, we clarify the effect of the penal liability on the firm's investment in research decision. The level of the fine pushes the firm to reduce its uncertainty about the risk of accident. However, if she perceives that the risk of accident is high, its investment in research will decrease with the level of the fine for maintaining its expected payoff.
ORSET Caroline () Innovation, information, lobby and tort law under uncertainty
Julien Jacob (Université de Strasbourg, BETA)
Régulation et Environnement
Le 10/02/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Alliances of buyers to negotiate input prices with suppliers have become commonplace in many industries. Using pre- and post-alliances data on household purchases of bottled water, I develop a structural model of bilateral oligopoly to estimate the effects of buyer alliances formed by retailers on the bargaining power of firms and retail prices paid by consumers. Results provide evidence of a countervailing buyer power effect that reduces retail prices by roughly 7%. Exploring determinants of buyer power, I find that changes in firms’ bargaining ability play an important role in the countervailing force exerted by buyer alliances which, absent this effect, may harm retailers.
MOLINA Hugo () Buyer Alliances in Vertically Related Markets - ANNULETexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 03/02/2020 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We study the impact of destination-based cash-flow taxation on tax competition and on adoption spillovers in a model with asymmetric countries. We build a model with endogenous tax rates and endogenous profit shifting in which countries choose between source-based and destination-based taxation. We find that tax competition is eliminated only if both countries use destination-based taxes and is reduced if one country unilaterally adopts destination-based taxes. We also find that countries do not have a clear incentive to be the first to adopt destination-based taxes but that a universal adoption is preferred to a unilateral adoption.
François Manon () Profit shifting and destination-based taxes
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/12/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We use mine-level data from the international copper industry to quantify environmental
misallocation. We define this concept as the ratio between the observed carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions in the industry and the level reached by a social planner that
allocate the observed output across mines so as to minimize emissions, conditional on
the current state of the technology and some well-defined extraction rules. We find that
CO2 emissions derived from the world copper industry could be reduced by 47% under
the planner's allocation. We also find that the latter allocation of output would bring
down production costs by 24% at the aggregate level. Our results suggest that a cleaner
environment is not necessarily tied to lower levels of productive efficiency.
LUENGO Andres () Environmental Misallocation in the Copper Industry
Régulation et Environnement
Le 09/12/2019 de 00:00:00 à 00:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
, () THE ECONOMICS OF ENERGY TRANSITIONTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 02/12/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
In this paper we provide new empirical evidence on the impact of ultra-fast broadband deployment on local growth, and in particular on local new business establishment. We leverage on a unique dataset collecting data on broadband coverage and firm creation for every Italian municipality over the period 2013-2018. Our identification strategy relies on the distance between municipalities and the closest telephone exchange with optical line terminal (OLT). Preliminary results show that OLS estimates are upward biased, as they overestimate the impact of ultra-fast broadband deployment on firm establishment.
Results depend crucially on the industrial sector we
consider: technology-intensive sectors such as ICT and scientific activities are strongly positively affected by the introduction of new broadband infrastructure, while more traditional sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing are not significantly affected by high-speed connections. Taken together, our results highlight the heterogeneous effects of new broadband technologies on local business establishment.
SABATINO Lorien () Fast Internet and Firm Creation: Evidence from Italy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 25/11/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
A rapidly increasing amount of investments commit firms to undertake climate-friendly projects. Recent empirical evidence shows that certified green bonds have a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Yet little is known about the economic mechanisms of green finance and its possible contribution to climate policy.
This paper develops the first formal analysis of green finance as a climate policy instrument. We examine firms that undertake green and conventional projects, and finance the former through green bonds. Green projects emit less CO2, but they entail costs which stock investors do not directly observe. Our theory holds that green bonds allow firms to signal to stock investors their otherwise unobservable efficiency at controlling their CO2 emissions.
Our model consistently accounts for stylized facts on the recent development of green finance. It explains why firms benefit from green bonds even though these bonds' yield spread is small in practice compared to conventional bonds. The analysis has direct implications for the effective design of climate policy. Like carbon taxation, green finance induces firms to undertake more green projects at the expense of conventional ones. It may further amplify the effect of carbon taxation. Moreover, unlike standard voluntary programs, green finance induces firms to abandon their least efficient conventional projects.
DAUBANES Julien () Green finance and climate policy
Jean-Charles-Rochet: University of Geneva (SFI, GSEM) and MIT (Sloan)
Régulation et Environnement
Le 21/10/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Economic activity tends to be highly concentrated. These agglomeration or concentration forms are driven by spatial externalities on productivity, and are named agglomeration externalities. Transport improvements - by reducing the interaction cost between economic agents placed in different locations - can extend the geographic scope of these externalities on productivity. Furthermore, transport exposure also affects productivity directly as it may bring firm and employee relocations by making some places more attractive than others. Therefore, the objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to estimate the extent of agglomeration externalities at the urban scale, and secondly, to estimate the - direct and indirect - impact of transport exposure on productivity, using very fine georeferenced data on the road and public transport networks, and on more than one million employees working in a number of heterogeneous zones within Toulouse metropolitan area. This constitutes a valuable input for an urban planner who wants to maximize city’s wealth by identifying the disaggregated productivity impact of new transport infrastructure. To achieve these goals, we first estimate productivity effects of agglomeration and transport measures implementing a wage determination model using very disaggregated and georeferenced data of a sample of employees working in Toulouse in 2013 and 2015. We perform a two stage estimation approach (Combes et al. (2008)). The first stage of the regression allows us to assess the importance of industry effects and sector concentration characteristics against those highlighting true productivity differences across zones. In the second stage of the regression, we explain those productivity differences across zones - represented by the estimated first stage’s area-year fixed effects – by our local factors of interest: local employment density, and local transport exposure measures. Finally, and to have a full representation of transport impacts, we investigate the effect of transport exposure on local employment density. Our results suggest that out transport exposure measures have a substantial and significant effect on local productivity and local employment density.
RUIZ Celia () Agglomeration, Transport and Productivity: Evidence from Toulouse Metropolitan Area
Régulation et Environnement
Le 14/10/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We develop a property-rights model of endogenous market structure in
which contracting imperfections, rather than scale economies, emerge as the
source of market power. Production of a homogenous good is carried out
by substitutable, incentive-constrained teams that can stand alone as
perfect competitors or sell their assets to profit-motivated HQs, thereby
becoming subordinate members of their firms. HQs subsequently Cournot
compete in the product market. Team output and costs aggregate linearly
within and across firms, there are no diseconomies of HQ ownership, and HQs
are abundant.
A fundamental hold-out problem places lower and upper bounds on the
degree of concentration. The equilibrium market structure is typically an
oligopoly, sometimes with a competitive fringe. Concentration may increase
with the size of the market, unlike in the standard Cournot entry model.
Entry barriers and competition policy may have distinct effects depending
on the demand regime, which has implications for optimal policy in rich vs.
developing countries.
NEWMAN Andy () Competing for a Quiet Life: An Organizational Theory of Market Structure
Patrick Legros, Zsolt Udvari
Régulation et Environnement
Le 07/10/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper points out the basic price theory predictions for the consumer welfare gain from new technologies that improve the efficiency of goods trade. Micro-data on over 140 million of bids from three electricity markets reveals strikingly different consumer welfare impacts from new technologies. Consistent with the theory, the results can be explained by structural differences in excess demand: its convexity (concavity) is a determinant of consumers’ gain (loss).
LISKI Matti () Do consumers gain when new technologies improve the efficiency of goods trade?
Ivo VehviläinenTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 30/09/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising:A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet RadioJason HuangDavid H. ReileyNickolai M. Riabov?April 21, 2018AbstractA randomized experiment with almost 35 million Pandora listeners enables us to measure the sensi-tivity of consumers to advertising, an important topic of study in the era of ad-supported digital contentprovision. The experiment randomized listeners into nine treatment groups, each of which received adifferent level of audio advertising interrupting their music listening, with the highest treatment groupreceiving more than twice as many ads as the lowest treatment group. By keeping consistent treatmentassignment for 21 months, we are able to measure long-run demand effects, with three times as muchad-load sensitivity as we would have obtained if we had run a month-long experiment. We estimatea demand curve that is strikingly linear, with the number of hours listened decreasing linearly in thenumber of ads per hour (also known as the price of ad-supported listening). We also show the negativeimpact on the number of days listened and on the probability of listening at all in the final month. Us-ing an experimental design that separately varies the number of commercial interruptions per hour andthe number of ads per commercial interruption, we find that neither makes much difference to listenersbeyond their impact on the total number of ads per hour. Lastly, we find that increased ad load causesa significant increase in the number of paid ad-free subscriptions to Pandora, particularly among olderlisteners.
REILEY David () Measuring Consumer Sensitivity to Audio Advertising:A Field Experiment on Pandora Internet Radio
Jason Huang, Nickolai M. RiabovTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 23/09/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We study production-in-advance in a setting where firms first source inventories that remain unobservable to rivals, and then simultaneously set prices. In the unique equilibrium, each firm occasionally holds a sale relative to its reference price, resulting in firms sometimes being left with unsold inventory. In the limit as inventory costs become fully recoverable, the equilibrium converges to an equilibrium of the game where firms only choose prices and produce to order - the associated Bertrand game (examples of such games include fully-asymmetric clearinghouse models). Thus, away from that limit, our work generalizes Bertrand-type equilibria to production in advance, and challenges the commonly-held view associating production in advance with Cournot outcomes. The analysis involves, as an intermediate step, mapping the price-inventory game into an asymmetric all-pay contest with outside options and non-monotonic winning and losing functions. We lay out applications to taxation, merger analysis, information sharing, ex-ante investments, and vertical relations.
SCHÜTZ Rafael () All-Pay Oligopolies: Price Competition with Unobservable Inventory Choices
Joao MontezTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/09/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We show that the credit crunch of 2007-2013 favoured the adoption by startups of more efficient, intangible-intensive technologies. Using data for the universe of Italian corporations, we document that the cohorts of firms born during the crisis significantly increased their share of intangible capital relative to both incumbents and comparable young firms born before the crisis. Moreover, the entry rates of intangible-intensive startups decreased by less than those of other firms. We estimate that this selection is directly linked to the tightening of credit conditions. We use a firm dynamics model to unveil the mechanism behind these patterns.
Intangible goods make firms more efficient and profitable, reducing their demand of total capital and, crucially, their leverage at entry: this increases their resiliency to a financial shock. In the aggregate, a credit tightening changes the composition of new cohorts in favor of intangible-intensive producers, resulting in a persistent increase in their intangible capital accumulation.
MANARESI Francesco () Born in Hard Times: Startups and Intangible Capital During the Financial Crisis
Régulation et Environnement
Le 24/06/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We characterize the analytic relationship between the distributions of two variables linked by a structural model. We then highlight four theoretical applications to models of heterogeneous firms in monopolistic competition. First, we ask which demand func- tions are consistent with productivity and sales distributions having the same form (whether Pareto, lognormal, or Fr ?echet) in the cross section. The answer is a new “CREMR” demand function (Constant Revenue Elasticity of Marginal Revenue). Sec- ond, we show that CREMR is also necessary and sufficient for Gibrat’s Law to hold over time. Third, we use our methodology to quantify misallocation at the microeco- nomic level (both in general and in the special CREMR case). Fourth, we characterize the distribution of markups implied by any assumptions on demand and productivity. Finally, we show in an empirical application using Indian firm-level data on sales and markups that CREMR-based distributions yield a parsimonious fit superior to many widely-used alternatives.
PARENTI Mathieu () Sales and Markup Dispersion: Theory and Empirics
Monika Mrazova and J. Peter NearyTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/05/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We estimate the impacts of climate on economic growth using Gross Regional Product (GRP) for more than 1,500 regions in 77 countries. In temperate and tropical climates, annual temperature shocks reduce GRP whereas they increase GRP in cold climates. With respect to long-term climate conditions, one degree of temperature increase reduces output by 2-3%. The effect of annual or long-term precipitation is found to be less important and less robust among specifications. For projected global warming of 4°C until 2100, we find that regions lose 9% of economic output on average and more than 20% of output in tropical regions.
KALKUHL Matthias () The Impact of Climate Conditions on Economic Production. Evidence from a Global Panel of Regions
Wenz LeonieTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 20/05/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We analyze the relationship between Micro
nance Institutions (MFIs) and external funding
institutions, with the aim of contributing to the debate on mission drift (the tendency
for MFIs to lend money to wealthier borrower rather than to the very poor). We suggest
that funding institutions build incentives for MFIs to choose the adequate share of poorer
borrowers and to exert effort to increase the quality of the funded projects. We show that
asymmetric information on both the effort level and its cost may increase the share of richer
borrowers. However the unobservability of the cost of effort has an ambiguous effect. It
pushes efficient MFIs to serve a higher share of poorer borrowers, while less efficient ones
decrease their poor outreach.
JEL codes: O12, O16, G21.
Keywords: Micro
nance, Funding Institutions, Mission Drift, Contract Theory.
BIANCINI Sara (Université de Cergy) Mission Drift in Microcredit: A Contract Theory Approach
David Ettinger, Baptiste Venet
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/05/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The electricity and heat generation sector represents about 40 % of global greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions in 2016. Policy-makers have implemented a variety of instru-
ments to decarbonise their power sector. This paper examines the UK Carbon Price
Floor (CPF), a novel carbon pricing instrument implemented in the United Kingdom
in 2013. After describing the potential mechanisms behind the recent UK power sector
decarbonisation, I apply the synthetic control method on country-level data to estimate
the impact of the CPF on per capita emissions. I discuss the importance of potential
confounders and the amount of net electricity imports imputable to the policy. De-
pending on the speci_cation, the abatement associated with the introduction of the
CPF range from 104 to 156 millions tons of equivalent CO2 over the 2013-2017 period.
This implies a reduction of between 39% and 48% of total power sector emissions by
2017. Several placebo tests suggest that these estimates capture a causal impact. This
paper shows that a carbon levy on high-emitting inputs used for electricity generation
can lead to successful decarbonisation.
LEROUTIER Marion (PSE) Carbon Pricing and Power Sector Decarbonisation: Evidence from the UK
Régulation et Environnement
Le 06/05/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Using anewsurvey and National households’surveydata, we investigate French perception over
carbon taxation. We find that French people largely reject a tax and dividend policy where revenues
of the tax would be redistributed uniformly. However, their perception about the properties of the tax
are biased: people overestimate the negative impact on their purchasing power, wrongly think the
scheme is regressive, and do no tperceive it as environmentally effective. Our econometric analysis
shows that correcting these three bias would suffice to generate majority acceptance. Yet, we find
that people’s beliefs are persistent and their revisions biased towards pessimism, so that only few
can be convinced.
FABRE Antoine (PSE) Can We Reconcile French People with the Carbon Tax? Disentangling Beliefs from Preferences
Thomas DouenneTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/04/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Pricing algorithms are increasingly replacing human decision making in real marketplaces. To inform the competition policy debate on possible consequences, we run experiments with pricing algorithms powered by Artificial Intelligence in controlled environments (computer simulations).
In particular, we study the interaction among a number of Q-learning algorithms in the context of a workhorse oligopoly model of price competition with Logit demand and constant marginal costs. We show that the algorithms consistently learn to charge supra-competitive prices, without communicating with each other. The high prices are sustained by classical collusive strategies with a finite punishment phase followed by a gradual return to cooperation. This finding is robust to asymmetries in cost or demand and to changes in the number of players.
CALZOLARI Giacomo (PSE) Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing and Collusion
Emilio Calvano,Vincenzo Denicolò and Sergio PastorelloTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 08/04/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
International Environmental Agreements (IEA) tend to bear a high degree of vagueness. They are expressed in terms of levels of standards, with a permitted degree of discretion to the signatories, rather than a specific policy commitment. Why would negotiators craft vague agreements that risk non-compliance ? Using a game-theoretic model, where information regarding institutional capacities of potential participants is asymmetric, I argue that vagueness offers the ability to manage uncertainty over policy outcomes. In doing so, I contribute to the theory of international environmental agreements, which has overwhelmingly assumed non-compliance to be observable and non-enforcement to be punishable. By also incorporating countries ratification decisions, this paper makes several important contributions : it contributes to a more realistic modeling of the treaty formation, it endogenizes the number of participants as well as their characteristics and it identifies the determinants of the optimal level of ambiguity in designing an IEA.
KASSAB Dina (PSE) Agree to Disagree ? Making sense of vagueness in International Environmental Agreements
Régulation et Environnement
Le 01/04/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper analyzes the impact of intermediaries concentration on the allocation of revenues in online platforms. We study sponsored search - the sale ad space on search engines through online auctions - documenting how advertisers increasingly bid through an handful of specialized intermediaries. This enhances automated bidding and data pooling, but lessens competition whenever the intermediary represents com- peting advertisers. Using data on nearly
40 million Google’s keyword-auctions, we first apply machine learning algorithms to cluster keywords into thematic groups serving as relevant markets. Then, through an instrumental variable strategy, we quantify a negative and sizeable impact of intermediaries’ concentration on platform’s revenues.
DECAROLIS Francesco (PSE) From Mad Men to Maths Men: Concentration and Buyer Power in Online Advertising
Gabriele Rovigatti
Régulation et Environnement
Le 25/03/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper investigates the extent to which international migration can be explained by climate change and whether this relationship varies systematically between groups of countries. The primary focus is to further investigate the differential effect found for countries with different income levels using a high-frequency migration dataset and allowing the country-grouping to be data-driven. For this purpose, the main results of this paper are based on the group-mean fixed-effects (GFE) estimator proposed by Bonhomme and Manresa (2015), which allows us to group the countries of origin according to the data generating process. The results indicate that on average, increasing average temperatures are associated with an increase in emigration rates, but that the pattern differs between groups. The relationship is driven by a group of countries mainly located in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia. No statistically significant association is found between average local precipitation and emigration.
MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO Inma (PSE) Searching for Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in the Climate-Migration Link
Régulation et Environnement
Le 18/03/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We aim to analyze if, for the case of Bogota, the ENSO events (El Niño and la Niña) have an effect on health via weather and air quality. To our knowledge, no one seems to have investigated further the ENSO events on weather, how this relates with the concentration of air pollutants and the impact it could have on health outcomes. The question seems more relevant now as an increase in intensity and frequency of El Niño phenomena are expected in the coming years (see chapter 3 of last report Global Warming of 1.5 Celsius degrees the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The paper is purely empirical and uses a large database for a period running from 1997 to 2015 for different stations measuring pollutants as well as meteorological and weather variables along the city. The data are rich (by day and hour in many cases) and allow to do a unique analysis. Information of health outcomes come from a data-set of health centers along the city, with information of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases between 2012 to 2015. Information of births and deaths (weight at birth, height at birth, weeks of gestation, etc) is available from 1997 to 2015. Information of the ENSO events is publicly available by month since 1950.
As a first step, we have estimated the effects of ENSO events on weather and on pollutants hour by hour, using those phenomena as a quasi-experiment; this has allowed us to understand better at which time of the day, weather and pollutant factors are highly or less affected by ENSO events. In terms of weather, the effect goes in the expected direction, with higher temperature in El Niño and higher rain in La Niña. However, the effects on weather variables tend to be higher during La Niña than during El Niño, and in both cases, the maximum effects happen during the afternoon peak, in comparison with the morning. In terms of pollution, El Niño brings higher temperatures, and pollutants such as particulate matter and CO increase during these events, in peak hours. However, La Niña brings more rain which could help to clean those contaminants. Importantly, peak hours of transport matter to increase pollution, and ENSO events are more relevant during this time. The hours of the day when the effects are more important should be considered in the health equation. The step to follow will be to test the potential effects this could have on health costs, and to estimate the economic cost of these phenomena (on QUALYS-DALYS).
BECERRA VALBUENA Luis (PSE) Do local ENSO events affect air quality and health in Bogotá ?
Professor Jorge
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/03/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper evaluates the influence of energy prices on employment and environmental performance of French manufacturing establishments over the period of 1997-2015. To identify price effects, we construct a shift-share instrument that captures only the exogenous variation in establishment-specifi c energy prices. Our results highlight a trade-off between environmental and economic goals: an increase in energy prices brings about not only substantial reductions in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but also modestly negative impacts on employment and productivity. This trade-off will be ampli fied by a carbon tax, especially in trade-intensive and energy-intensive sectors. Finally, employment effects are not biased against unskilled workers and are mitigated by labor reallocation across establishments within the same company.
VONA Francesco (PSE) The Impact of Energy Prices on Employment and Environmental
Régulation et Environnement
Le 25/02/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Historical data show that the increase in emissions is for only one-fourth attributable to the growth of emissions per person, whereas three-fourths are due to the growth of population. This striking evidence notwithstanding, the majority of climate-economic studies focus on emissions through the lens of energy externalities in production and consumption activities, and on policies to correct these. Population dynamics in those models is typically taken to follow exogenous trends. Yet population growth is a key component of projections of future emissions. Population is expected to rise to around 9.8 billion by 2050, and climate economists must include the environmental consequences of individuals' reproductive decisions into their analyses. In this paper, we study the interactions between climate change and population dynamics. We develop an analytical model of endogenous fertility and embed it in a calibrated climate-economy model. The social optimum can be implemented through carbon pricing policies and policies aiming at smaller families. Population without family planning policies peaks at 12 billion, while optimal family planning brings the peak back to 9 billion. If family planning cannot be addressed as a separate policy instrument for climate policies, carbon taxes need to be lowered. Our results present family planning as an integral part of climate policies and quantify the costs of neglecting the interaction.
GERLAGH Reyer (PSE) Family Planning and Climate Change
Régulation et Environnement
Le 18/02/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We study the identification and estimation of a mixed logit model of demand for bundles. We generalize the model proposed by Gentzkow (2007) in three ways. First, we allow the demand synergies among products (capturing complementarity and substitutability) to be bundle-individual specific and treated as random coefficients. Second, we allow the joint distribution of the random coefficients to belong to any parametric family. Third, our arguments are not specific to the three-bundle case but are directly developed for choice sets of any size. We propose sufficient conditions for identification and for lack of it. Our sufficient conditions for identification also guarantee consistency and asymptotic normality of a constrained MLE (MPEC) that alleviates the curse of dimensionality inherent in estimation, and it is robust to both price endogeneity and sampling error in the observed market shares. We use our methods to investigate the welfare implications of mixed bundling pricing in the ready-to-eat cereal industry in the USA. The profit gains of mixed bundling pricing with respect to pure components pricing are sharply decreasing in the level of competition: while a monopolist would benefit from mixed bundling, the observed oligopoly would not—even ignoring potential increases in logistics costs. Given any market structure, mixed bundling leads to lower levels of consumer surplus than pure components.
Wang Ao (ENSAE - Paristech) Identification and Estimation of Demand for Bundles
Alessandro Iaria
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/02/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The paper uses a continuous-time overlapping-generations model with endogenous growth and pollution accumulation over time to study the link between longevity and global warming. It is seen that increasing longevity accelerates climate change in a business-as-usual scenario without climate policy. If a binding emission target is set exogenously and implemented via a cap-and-trade system, the price of emission permits is increasing in longevity. Longevity has no effect on the optimal solution of the climate problem if perfect intergenerational transfers are feasible. If these transfers are absent, the impact of longevity is ambiguous.
RAUSCHER Michael (ENSAE - Paristech) Demographic Change and Climate Change
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/02/2019 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
STERN Lennart (ENSAE - Paristech) *
Régulation et Environnement
Le 10/12/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
TAYLOR Scott (ENSAE - Paristech) Is Free Trade Good for Resources - Labellisé par les Assises de la recherche de l'Université Paris 1
Régulation et Environnement
Le 03/12/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Many households lack sophistication required to make complex financial decisions and
can be steered by intermediaries to certain financial products via informative or distorted
advice, advertisement, shrouding, etc. We build a model of the mortgage market in which
banks attain their optimal mortgage portfolio by both setting rates and steering their clientele.
“Sophisticated” households know which mortgage type is best for them; “naive” are
susceptible to bank’s steering. Using data on the universe of Italian mortgages, we estimate
the model and quantify the welfare implications of steering in this market. The average
cost of the distortion is equivalent to an increase in the annual mortgage payment by 11%.
However, since steering often also conveys information about mortgages, restricting steering
results in a loss of 998 euros per year on average. A financial literacy campaign is beneficial
for naive households, but hurts sophisticated ones.
POZZI Andrea (ENSAE - Paristech) The Cost of Steering in Financial Markets: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
Leonardo Gambacorta, Luigi Guiso, Paolo Mistrulli and Anton Tsoy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 26/11/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Hotter years are associated with lower economic output in country-level data. We show that the effect of temperature on labor is an important part of the explanation. Using high-frequency micro data from selected firms in India, we find that worker productivity on hot days declines by 2 to 4 percent per degree celsius. Sustained heat also increases worker absenteeism. Using a national panel of manufacturing plants, we find similar temperature effects on output and show that these can be fully accounted for by reductions in the productivity of labor. Estimated effect sizes are consistent with studies that rely on country GDP panels.
SOMANATHAN Eswaran () The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing
Rohini Somanathan, Anant Sudarshan, and Meenu TewariTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 19/11/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
How can individuals care about animals and, at the same time, eat
meat? We design a survey study to explore this meat paradox.
Survey participants (N = 3054) underestimate farm animal suffer-
ing, and underestimate it more (i.e., are less realistic) when they
eat more meat. Building on the literature on cognitive dissonance,
we develop a model in which individuals form self-serving beliefs in
order to reduce the moral guilt associated with meat consumption.
The model characterizes how individuals' beliefs about animal wel-
fare and their attitude towards information are affected by the eco-
nomic environment (e.g., price of meat, salience of animal welfare),
and by individuals' preferences (e.g., taste for meat, moral cost of
guilt). Several empirical observations are consistent with our model.
TREICH Nicolas () An economic model of the meat paradox
N. Hestermann et Y. Le YaouanqTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 12/11/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper documents the within firm reallocation of inputs and outputs as a result of a trade policy shock on the input side. A unique firm-input level dataset for India with information on different raw material inputs used in production, enables us to identify firms with imported inputs subject to trade policy. To guide the empirics, we first develop a back-bone model of heterogeneous firms that source inputs from abroad. We find that affected firms engage in input reallocation and lower their use of protected inputs by 25-40%, relative to other inputs.
Especially large firms and multi-output firms skew their input use towards unprotected inputs. To identify the output reallocation ensuing trade protection on inputs, we develop a firm level input-output correspondence. Firms reduce their sales of outputs made of protected inputs, resulting in an annual aggregate manufacturing output growth loss for India of around 10%. We find a firm level decrease in markups, suggesting that the cost of imported inputs is only partially passed through to output prices. Thus, this paper documents a new channel through which trade protection negatively impacts input-using firms.
Vandenbussche Hylke () Input reallocation in Multi-product Firms
C. Viegelahn
Régulation et Environnement
Le 05/11/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
More and more wineries are using third-party eco-certification, such as organic or biodynamic certification, to communicate their sustainable practices. At the same time some wineries are adopting sustainable practices without third party certification. In France for example, some wineries self-proclaim themselves "Viticulture Raisonnée" (reasoned viticulture), a flexible approach to sustainability devoid of the rigidity of third party certification. The presence of these different sustainable practices raises the question of their comparative value. While previous research estimates that third party eco-certification leads to increased quality as evaluated by experts, it is unknown whether non-certified sustainable practices are also associated with quality improvements. Evaluating the impact of non-certified sustainability practices on quality is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying such practices. In this paper, we use French data on experts' quality ratings from Gault Millau, Gilbert Gaillard and Bettane Desseauve, to compare the ratings of self-proclaimed sustainable wines to third party eco-certified wines and conventional wines. A total of 140,690 wines is analyzed. Preliminary findings based on different matching techniques indicate that self-proclaimed sustainable wines are of lower quality than conventional wines, while eco-certified wines are of higher quality than conventional wines. This suggest that non certified practices could be associated with greenwashing.
JEL Classification: L15, L66; Q5
DELMAS Magali (Maggie) () Sustainable Practices and Wine Quality: Is there value in Certification?
Olivier Gergaud
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/10/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper studies the role of preferences on the link between disasters and growth. An endogenous growth model with disasters is presented in which one can derive closed-form solutions with nonexpected utility. The model distinguishes disaster risks and disaster strikes and highlights the numerous mechanisms through which they may affect growth. It is shown that separating aversion to risk from the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution bears critical qualitative implications that enable to better understand these mechanisms. In a calibration of the model, it is shown that for standard parameter values, the additional restriction imposed by the time-additive expected utility can also lead to substantial quantitative bias regarding optimal risk-mitigation policies and growth. The paper thus calls for a wider use of non-expected utility in the modeling of disasters, in particular with respect to environmental disasters and climate change.
Douenne Thomas () Disaster risks, disaster strikes and economic growth: the role of preferencesTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/10/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The paper examines the effect of information about flood zone location on property prices in the region around Paris, France, over the period 2002 to 2012. We use unique data on real estate transactions and geo-localised amenities from a major European city exploiting the different dates of implementation of special risk zoning regulation. Using an identification strategy based on a difference-in-difference specification, the results indicate that home prices for similar real estate are 3 to 7% lower when located in a flood risk zone, depending on the sub market (flats or houses), and the discount increases the higher is the flood risk designated by the regulation. The effect is attenuated for buyers coming from locations with previous flood events.
MILLOCK Katrin () The effect of flood risk information on property values around Paris
Edwige Dubos-Paillard, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Géographie-cités) and Emmanuelle Lavaine, Montpellier University (CEEM)
Régulation et Environnement
Le 08/10/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We build a structural model of the R&D subsidy process incorporating externalities, fixed costs
of R&D, and financial market imperfections. We estimate the model using project level R&D and
subsidy data from Finland. We conduct a counterfactual analysis of an optimal R&D tax credit
policy, the first and second best policies, and laissez-faire with no support and compare them to
the subsidy policy used in Finland. We find that the optimal R&D tax credit rate is 0.24, which is
lower than the observed average R&D subsidy rate (0.36). R&D participation does not vary
across regimes. The R&D investments and spillovers generated by the optimal R&D tax credit
and subsidy policies are significantly higher than under laissez-faire but smaller than in the first
and second best. Neither tax credits nor subsidies improve welfare compared to laissez-faire.
TOIVANEN Otto () Welfare effects of R&D support policies
Tuomas Takalo & Tanja Tanayama
Régulation et Environnement
Le 01/10/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world with a few countries, mostly in high latitudes, that may experience gains, while most will see average yield decrease. This paper aims at quantifying the role of international trade in attenuating the effects of climate change by allowing the expression of the new climate-induced pattern of comparative advantages. To do this, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium trade model where the representation of acreage and land use choices is inspired from modern Ricardian trade models but also consistent with theoretical and empirical literature on land use choices. The model is calibrated on spatially explicit information about potential yields before and after climate change coming from the agronomic literature. The results show that the climate-induced yield changes generate large price movements that incentivize adjustments in acreage and trade. The new trade pattern is very different from the current one showing the important role of trade flows in adapting to climate change. This is confirmed by large increased welfare losses from climate change when adjustments in trade flows are constrained.
GOUEL Christophe (INRA) The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate ChangeTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 24/09/2018 de 12:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We uncover how strategic and screening concerns interact in the design of ver-
tical contracts under the threat of entry. We provide a rationale for the use of
rebates, discounts and quantity requirements in a context with uncertainty on the
fixed cost of entry, multi-unit demand and private information on the buyer’s prefer-
ences. These key ingredients were missing from the extant literature. First, private
information on the buyer’s tastes motivates the use of price discounts as screening
devices as in any nonlinear pricing context. Yet, price discounts are modified by
the threat of entry in subtle ways that depend on the contractual environments.
Second, the buyer has a downward sloping demand and finds it sometimes optimal
to split consumption between the incumbent and the entrant, with the proviso, con-
sistent with most recent Antitrust cases, that the entrant, although more efficient,
never serves the whole demand. Third, although it can be attractive on alloca-
tive grounds, entry might not always be socially optimal because of uncertainty
on the fixed cost of entry. We study two different scenarios. In the first one, the
case of market-share contracts, the incumbent can design different nonlinear tariffs
depending on whether the buyer also purchases from the entrant or not. In the
second scenario, the incumbent can only offer a single nonlinear tariff and cannot
distinguish whether the buyer also purchases from the entrant or not. Our analy-
sis stresses properties of nonlinear prices that are specific to an entry context and
that respond to the incumbent’s incentives to shift rent under the aforementioned
contractual restrictions.
MARTIMORT David (INRA) Screening Contracts As A Barrier To Entry
Jérôme Pouyet and Lars Stole
Régulation et Environnement
Le 11/06/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are known to cause global climate change but no damage to the local environment. However, because CO2 is often jointly produced with other substances that pollute the environment, CO2 abatement may generate ancillary benefits, especially for human health.
Previous research suggests that these co-benefits can offset a substantial share of the economic costs of mitigation policies. This paper conducts the first empirical test of this hypothesis in the context of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for CO2. The econometric analysis exploits comprehensive microdata on discharges of more than 90 different pollutants into air, water and soil, at more than
28,000 commercial installations in 31 European countries. It is found that the EU ETS decreased air releases of some pollutants while increasing water releases of other pollutants. Moreover, in some cases the patterns of spatial redistribution are strongly correlated with income, population size or age. The implications for the efficiency and environmental justice of the EU ETS are discussed.
WAGNER Ulrich () THE CO-POLLUTION BENEFITS OF CLIMATE POLICY: EVIDENCE FROM THE EU EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME
with Laure B. de Preux
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/06/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper demonstrates that the establishment of well-functioning water markets may substantially mitigate the costs of drought. We develop a framework to model the costs of incomplete water regulation, and simulate the efficiency gains from water trading across the agricultural and urban sectors. Critical to this exercise are credible estimates of the price elasticity of demand for agricultural water. We use monthly panel data on well-level agricultural groundwater extraction in an area that charges volumetric rates for groundwater to estimate the elasticity. Demand is inelastic, with estimates ranging from -0.17 to -0.22. Our simulation suggests that in an agriculturally productive and dense urban area of California, a water market could have reduced the welfare impacts to residential users from the 2015 drought mandate by 60% from $83 million to $33.5 million. Water markets present a promising adaption strategy to climate change.
JESSOE Katrina () Gains from Water Markets: Micro-level Evidence on Agricultural Water Demand
with Ellen Bruno
Régulation et Environnement
Le 28/05/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
ELLISON Glenn () A Model of Online Retail Recommendations
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/04/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The paper develops an analytic integrated assessment model of climate change.
It enhances our current understanding of climate policy and explains crucial relations to the
broader audience. The model offers a novel framework to address climate change uncertainties.
The analytic solution overcomes Bellman’s curse of dimensionality for a wide range
of stochastic processes. I analyze the policy implications of the main climate uncertainties
and show the different welfare implications of “objective” uncertainty, epistemological
uncertainty, and anticipated learning. In contrast to earlier suggestions in the literature,
uncertainty is not more relevant to climate change evaluation than discounting, but uncertainty
makes the policy recommendations even more sensitive to the calibration of the
discount rates and its individual components than under certainty. The present Analytic Climate
Economy (ACE) is the first analytic model comprising all the components considered
essential for quantitative policy advising.
TRAEGER Christian () ACE – Analytic Climate Economy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 09/04/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
In a strategic game where firms compete against each other, the set of rationalizable strategies for each player entails all the best responses to the other’s decisions. The theoretical litterature
has suggested that the uniqueness of the rationalizable outcomes coincides with the Nash equilibrium of the game. This paper proposes an empirical test of the existence of the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium in a Cournot oligopoly. We focus on the U.S. airline industry and develop a theoretical model of competition on each route. It is assumed that airlines are not always able to predict perfectly the behavior of the competitors which can result in multiplicity of rationalizable outcomes. Based on the supply and demand ingredients of our model, we construct a stability criterion which guarantees uniqueness. We conclude that more than 90% of the local markets observed in the U.S. airline industry have reached the unique possible Nash equilibrium. As a by-product, we also identify the main determinants which prevent firms from reaching an equilibrium. We show in particular that local markets which include a higher number of competitors are the ones where the quantity produced is more volatile.
GAGNEPAIN Philippe (Université Paris 1, PSE) Market power and volatility in the airline industry
With A. Belova, P. Gagnepain, et S. Gauthier
Régulation et Environnement
Le 26/03/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
There is a large and long-standing literature on the distortionary effects of regulations on the functioning of markets. A newer strand of this literature focuses on licensing regulations, such as state-specific licensing of teachers and hairdressers. We seek to add to this literature with the specific case of ride-hailing services, such as Uber. We assemble a new and comprehensive data set of
250 US cities and their regulations regarding hackney services. We specify a stylized profit model for Uber, which is a function of these regulations, and estimate the parameters of the profit function using observed Uber entry decisions into these cities. Our data set and empirical strategy allow us to estimate the differential effects of particular types of regulations, separating out regulations governing safety, governing operations, and erecting entry barriers. We find that safety regulations do not have a distortionary effect on the functioning of the market for hackney services and evading them does not increase Uber’s profits. We find evidence that Uber’s profits are increased, however, by their ability to evade regulatory entry barriers and regulations governing operations. In other words, those regulations do have a significant distortionary effect on the market.
To the extent that safety-related regulations are welfare-enhancing and those erecting entry barriers are welfare-decreasing, our results suggest a welfare-enhancing effect of Uber’s entry.
ELLISON GLENN (MIT) Regulatory Distortion: Evidence from Uber’s Entry Decisions in the US
Régulation et Environnement
Le 19/03/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Abstract 1: We introduce a methodology to estimate the determinants of the formation
of technology diffusion networks from the patterns of technology
adoption. We apply this methodology to wind energy, which is one of the
key technologies for climate change mitigation. Technology diffusion occurs
at the firm level, but it is influenced by policy and we study how policy
affects network formation at a country level. Our results emphasize that
long-term economic and trade relationships, as measured in particular by
economic integration, are key determinants of technological diffusion. Specific
support measures seem less relevant for the diffusion per se, although
they might play a crucial role from an industrial perspective.
Abstract 2: This article analyzes how the local political organization (in France, the level of the single municipality, the union of communes (Syndicats) or supermunicipality (communaut de communes) and the management mode (public or private) can influence the performance of the public service. The impact of these organizational configurations on costs has never been studied simultaneously by the literature. We first propose a theoretical model based on a principal-agent problem to analyze them together. Then, from a panel of French water services, we observe empirically that these different organizational ombinations have an impact on the price.
MILLOCK Katrin (CNRS) Accelerating diffusion of climate-friendly technologies: a network perspective
with Solmaria Halleck Vega and Antoine Mandel
Régulation et Environnement
Le 05/03/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
There is a long standing policy debate on the role and design of innovation policies. In this paper, we develop a model of project choice with competition for funding and compare: (i) A Demand-side approach, in which the public authority restricts the type of research project eligible for funding, with (ii) A Supply-side approach, in which the public authority chooses its preferred project among those submitted. The authority can verify the characteristics of the projects submitted by the firms, but does not know which other projects the firms have available. We compare the two approaches from the point of view of the authority and in terms of social welfare, considering both small projects which the firm could self-finance and larger projects which would not be implemented absent public funds. We identify under which conditions a Demand-side approach is preferable in terms of allocative efficiency and investment incentives.
IOSSA Elisabetta (CNRS) Project Choice and Innovation Policy: the case for Public Procurement
with Alessandro De Chiara
Régulation et Environnement
Le 19/02/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We provide a new way to model endogenous catastrophic risk termed inertia risk, which accounts for dynamic lags between physical variables and the hazard rate—a characteristic which is often observed in real life problems. For example the stock of some particular species in an ecosystem might influence the level of stress (or resilience) in that system, which is a slowly changing variable compared to the species dynamics. When the level of stress passes a critical threshold the ecosystem undertakes a regime shift, a rapid, substantial and persistent change in the system. In such context the inertia hazard rate defines the risk that the system will shift in the next period of time, which depends on both variables. We show that the added realism in our risk model has intuitive appeal and significantly impacts optimal solutions. With inertia risk, the probability that a catastrophe will ever occur may span the entire interval [0, 1]. This as opposed to the standard approach where this probability is either zero or one. We also show how inertia risk may generate path dependency as the hazard rate depends on learning about how risk is distributed in state space. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model of climate change. The optimal solution with inertia depends on parameters, such as damage and discount rates in a qualitatively different way compared to the standard approach. Hence for problems with lagged effects, where inertia risk is a more realistic way to represent risk, using the standard models of catastrophic risk that discard these lagged effects could generate substantially flawed policy recommendations.
CREPIN Anne-Sophie () Inertia in risk; improving economic models of catastrophes
Eric Nævdal
Régulation et Environnement
Le 12/02/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This article analyzes the impacts of Environmental Tax Reform (ETR) when the government is constrained not to increase the public debt-to-output ratio. We consider an
overlapping generations model with pollution. Public spending for pollution abatement are …nanced by tax revenues and public debt. We show that keeping constant the public
debt-output ratio is not an obstacle to attain a double dividend, i.e. an increase of both (i) environmental quality and (ii) aggregate consumption. First, if the capital stock is
low and the pollution abatement is large enough, a successful ETR consists in a rise of the environmental tax, compensated by a decrease of the income tax. Secondly, we show
that the environmental tax revenues may help reduce the public debt-output ratio. We give conditions (on the initial level of the environmental tax and the debt-output ratio)
such that an increase of the environmental tax, budget-balanced by a decrease of the debt-output ratio may also achieve a double dividend. We conclude that public debt crisis
should not compromise ETR, instead, environmental tax revenues could be part of the solution.
Colo Philippe (PSE) Environmental Tax Reform under debt constraint
Régulation et Environnement
Le 05/02/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
A model shows that systematic interactions between green consumer culture and sustainable technologies can give rise to path dependency in sustainable innovation processes. The theory includes (i) green preferences formed through cultural transmission which involves rational socialization actions, (ii) innovation endogenously directed to sustainable or unsustainable sectors depending on culture through market size effects. When interactions between green culture and technology are strong enough, the dynamics exhibits complementarities resulting in path dependency. Two long-term outcomes emerge. A green equilibrium (with strong green culture and an environmentally benign technology), a brown equilibrium (with weak green culture and a pollution-intensive technology). The model has important implications for the cost of environmental policies. Moreover, the theory enables the study of an important disregarded issue, i.e., the political sustainability of environmental taxes.
BEZIN Emeline (PSE) The Economics of Green Consumption, Cultural Transmission and Sustainable Technological Change.
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/01/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
LEGROS Patrick () Come Together Now — Firm Boundaries and Delegation
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/01/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Douenne Thomas (PSE, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne) The vertical and horizontal distributive effects of energy taxes: A micro-simulation study of a French policy
Nunez Thais (Université d'Orléans) Trade in fuels and environmental regulation: a two-side story
Régulation et Environnement
Le 08/01/2018 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We study changes in nuclear-risk perception following the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 2011. Using an exhaustive registry of individual housing transactions in England and Wales between 2007 and 2014, we implement a difference-in-difference strategy and compare housing prices in at-risk areas to areas further away from nuclear sites before and after the Fukushima incident. We find a persistent price decrease of about 3.5% in response to the accident for properties in the neighbourhood of nuclear plants. As the UK immediately extended the life duration of most nuclear plants, the price decrease is primarily driven by a change in nuclear-risk perception. However, we find large heterogeneity among at-risk neighbourhoods, and we explore how such heterogeneity can relate to existing productive and consumptive amenities.
Coulomb Renaud (University of Melbourne) Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from the Fukushima Accident
Yanos Zylberberg
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/12/2017 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Taiwanese Labor, Government Employee, and Farmer Insurance programs provide 5-6 months of salary to
enrollees who undergo hysterectomy or oophorectomy before their 45th birthday. These programs result in
more and earlier treatments, referred as, respectively, inducement and timing effects. Difference-indifference
and nonparametric methods are used to estimate these effects on surgery hazards between 1997
and 2011. For Government Employee and Labor Insurance, inducement is 11-12% of all hysterectomies,
and timing 20% of inducement. For oophorectomy, both effects are insignificant. Induced hysterectomies
increase benefit payments and surgical costs, at about the cost of a mammogram and 5 pap smears per
enrollee.
MA Albert (University of Melbourne) Uterus at a Price: Disability Insurance and Hysterectomy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 04/12/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
SCHUMACHER Ingmar () Mitigation strategies when faced with the threat of solar radiation management
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/11/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
CASSI Lorenzo () Mergers and inventive activities in the pharmaceutical sector
with Carmine Ornaghi (University of Southampton)
Régulation et Environnement
Le 20/11/2017 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Astract
We use an original dataset on Dutch supermarkets to assess the effect of a merger that was conditionally approved by the Dutch Competition Authority (ACM) on prices and on the depth of assortment. We adopt a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits local variation in the merger's effects and we further control for selection on observables when defining our control group. We find that the merger did not affect individual products' prices but it led the merging parties to reposition their assortment and increase average category prices. While the low-quality target stores reduced the depth of their assortment when in direct competition with the acquirer's stores, the latter increased their product variety. By analyzing the effect of the merger on category prices, we find that the target most likely dropped high price products, while the acquirer added more of them. These findings suggests that the merging firms reposition their product offerings in order to avoid cannibalization and lessen local competition. We further show that other dimensions of heterogeneity such as market concentration, whether a divestiture was imposed, and the re-branding strategy of the target stores are important to explain the post-merger dynamics. A simple theoretical model of local-market assortment competition explains most of our findings.
DUSO Tomaso () The Effect of Retail Mergers on Prices and Variety: An Ex-post Evaluation
Elena Argentesi, Paolo Buccirossi, Roberto Cervone, Alessia Marrazzo
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/11/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
ABSTRACT:
The paper studies an organisational structure of contracting out public utilities to an asymmetric partnership between the local authorities and a vertically integrated firm. Being fiscally constrained and politically motivated the government delegates pricing decision in the downstream market to a partnership while the upstream market for essential input is not regulated directly. The accompanying regulatory instrument, namely the net budget transfer, is valued at the social cost of public funds and can be set ex post making the firm’s participation constraint non-binding. A negative budget transfer effectively extracts the firm’s rent in the non-regulated upstream market and depends on the corporate structure of the partnership. We build a formal model that predicts that local authorities with relatively high share in the partnership should decrease the net transfer when the profit margin in the downstream market falls. The empirical support for this finding is found in the panel data for 25 suburban passenger companies in Russia in 2011-2015. The effect of the share structure on the relationship between the compensation ratio and farebox ratio is captured by the interaction variable highlighting the nonlinear effect. The failure to fully compensate operational losses in the transportation market is interpreted as a system of pseudo-franchising contracts in the Russian suburban railway transport that, to some extent, reflects political preferences of the local authorities in the country.
CASSI Lorenzo () Contracting out public services to asymmetric partnerships
Régulation et Environnement
Le 06/11/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Abstract :
We analyze the adoption of green technology in a dynamic economy
affected by random shocks where demand spillovers are the main driver of
technological improvements. Firms' beliefs and consumers' anticipations
drive the path of the economy. We derive the optimal policy of
investment subsidy and the expected time and likelihood of reaching a
targeted level of environmental quality under economic uncertainty. This
allows us to estimate the value that should be given to the environment
in order to avoid an environmental catastrophe as a function of the
strength of spillover effects.
BOURGEON Jean-Marc () Green Technology Adoption and the Business Cycle
Margot Hovsepian
Régulation et Environnement
Le 23/10/2017 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This presentation will cover two closely related papers. The first paper analyzes the effects of environmental policy on employment (and unemployment) using a new general-equilibrium two-sector search model. We find that imposing a pollution tax causes substantial reductions in employment in the regulated (polluting) industry, but this is offset by increased employment in the unregulated (nonpolluting) sector. Thus the policy causes a substantial shift in employment between industries, but the net effect on overall employment (and unemployment) is small, even in the short run. An environmental performance standard causes a substantially smaller sectoral shift in employment than the emissions tax, with roughly similar net effects. The effects on the unregulated industry suggest that empirical studies of environmental regulation that focus only on regulated firms can be misleading (and those that use nonregulated firms as controls for regulated firms will be even more misleading). This paper’s results also suggest that overall effects on employment are not a major issue for environmental policy, and that policymakers who want to minimize sectoral shifts in employment might prefer performance standards over environmental taxes.
BOURGEON Jean-Marc () Unemployment and Environmental Regulation in General Equilibrium
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/10/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Abstract
Personalized pricing, a limiting case of price discrimination as the number of targeted consumer segments increases, becomes increasingly common due to the availability of vast amount of individual-level data. This paper studies personalized pricing in a Hotelling setting when each firm has a given target segment and consumers can be sophisticated. Sophisticated consumers can overcome the hurdles for price discrimination and have access to the price offered to non-targeted consumers, which naive consumers cannot. When all consumers are naive, personalized pricing leads to intense competition and total industry profit lower than that under the Hotelling equilibrium. But market is always fully covered. Sophisticated consumers raise the firm's cost of serving non-targeted consumers, hence discourage firms from poaching the rival's targeted customers. This softens competition. When firms have sufficiently large and non-overlapping target segments, consumer sophistication allows firms to extract full surplus from their targeted customers through perfect price discrimination. Consumers are strictly worse-off under competitive personalized pricing, a result in contrast to the common view in the literature. With sophisticated consumers, firms also choose not to serve the entire market when the commonly non-targeted market segment is small. Thus consumer sophistication can lead to lower consumer surplus and lower social welfare. We also discuss the implications for the regulation of the use of customer data by firms.
Key words: Personalized pricing, consumer sophistication, customer targeting, privacy
JEL Classification: D43, D8, L13, L5
CHEN Zhijun () Competitive Personalized Pricing with Sophisticated Consumers
Chongwoo Choe, Monash UniversityTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 02/10/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
FABREA Adrien () The Incentive properties of collective reputation
Wanda Mimra, ETH Zürich, and Angelo Zago, University of Verona
Régulation et Environnement
Le 25/09/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
LISKI Matti () Carbon leakage: a mechanism design approach
co-author: Lassi Ahlvik (NHH, Bergen)Texte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 18/09/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
MAVI Can Askan (PSE) Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas: An illustration from Mozambique
Pierre-Louis Vézina, King's College LondonTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/06/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Abstract
Electricity cannot be cost-e ectively stored even for short periods
of time. Consequently, wholesale electricity prices vary widely across
hours of the day with peak prices frequently exceeding o -peak prices
by a factor of ten or more. Most analyses of energy-eciency policies
ignore this variation, focusing on total energy savings without regard
to when those savings occur. In this paper we demonstrate the impor-
tance of this distinction using novel evidence from a rebate program for
air conditioners in Southern California. We estimate electricity savings
using previously unavailable hourly smart-meter data and show that
savings tend to occur during hours when the value of electricity is high.
This signi cantly increases the overall value of the program, especially
once we account for the large capacity payments received by generators
to guarantee their availability in high-demand hours. We then com-
pare this estimated savings pro le with engineering-based estimates for
this program as well as a variety of alternative energy-eciency invest-
ments. The results illustrate a surprisingly large amount of variation in
economic value across investments.
DAVIS Lucas (Haas Business School, UC Berkeley) Do Energy Eciency Investments Deliver at the Right Time?
Judson BoomhowerTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 29/05/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
GAVAZZA Alessandro (London School of Economics) *
Régulation et Environnement
Le 22/05/2017 de 09:00:00 à 13:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
, (London School of Economics) Journée interne du groupe Régulation et Environnement
Régulation et Environnement
Le 15/05/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Within a linear quadratic differential game framework with economic depletion inspired by Salo and Tahvonen (2001), we use recent results of Reddy and Engwerda (2013) to characterize a Pareto optimal bargaining agreement between two non-renewable resource producers. The main result is that incentive to cartelize will depend on the symmetry of the producers. In contrast to Salo and Tahvonen, we find that the concentration in supply could then increase over time while countries have more and more interest to bargain.
BERTHOD Mathias, MAYOL Alexandre (London School of Economics) A bargaining agreement between non-renewable resource producers: stability versus asymmetry
Régulation et Environnement
Le 24/04/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This article aims to show how a market exposed to catastrophic events finds the equilibrium level of adaptation and mitigation policies through R&D policy, with respect to different levels of Poisson probability of catastrophe. We study the effect of a pollution tax on the long-run growth rate and the implications of catastrophe probability on this effect. Our results suggest that the economy increases its R&D level with a higher catastrophe probability only if the penalty rate due to an abrupt event is sufficiently high. We also show that a pollution tax could increase the long-run growth. Besides, the catastrophe probability increases the amplitude of this positive effect if penalty rate is high enough. The market makes adaptation much more than mitigation with a higher catastrophe probability if total productivity of R&D is higher than cleanliness of innovations for intermediate goods. Lastly, we show that pollution growth could be higher with less polluting inputs, which we call a Jevons-type paradox.
Abstract :
This paper analyzes the growth and welfare impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments (BCA) across trading countries. I build a trade model with monopolistic competition and dynamic investment decisions using Ramsey growth model. The government in each country can invest either in green nonpolluting or in brown polluting capital. I solve numerically for an open loop Nash equilibrium to study different configurations of BCAs across countries. I find that a unilateral BCA is welfare enhancing for the country that applies it and an effective tool to shift the growth of the other country towards greener path even when countries are not concerned about the environment. In a case of a BCA war, results show that a bilateral BCA becomes welfare enhancing for both countries if governments care sufficiently about the environmental quality of their consumers. Moreover, the asymmetry in initial development levels across countries induces a slower growth for the initially poorer country only if the other country is richer in brown capital. Furthermore, the model shows that trade openness should be done gradually along the development path of countries.
ALTAGHLIBI Moutaz (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) Creative Destruction vs Destructive Destruction: A Schumpeterian Approach for Environmental Policy
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/03/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
This paper examines the consequences of salience for the government provision of public goods.
Salience is a common behavioral bias whereby people's attention is drawn to salient features of a
decision problem, leading them to overweight prominent information in subsequent judgments.
We analyze the case in which the public's demand for the good is distorted by salient events,
and explore how salience influences public good allocation and efficiency. Theoretical predictions
regarding public good allocation are ambiguous and depend on the magnitude of the change
in payoffs and the extent of salience effects. We test whether salience increases or decreases
allocation of government projects to reduce wildfire severity near wildland-adjacent communities.
Even though the occurrence of a wildfire likely reduces the severity of future fires in the same
area, it may increase the likelihood that fuels management projects are placed nearby if wildfire
events strongly increase the salience of losses under future fires. We find strong evidence that
the salience e ects increase the likelihood of fuels management projects, and use robustness
checks to eliminate competing explanations for our results. Our salience framework may also
offer insights into government responses to terrorism, natural disasters, disease outbreaks, and
environmental catastrophes.
PLANTINGA Andrew (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) Salience and the Government Provision of Public Goods
Matthew Wibbenmeyer et Sarah Anderson
Régulation et Environnement
Le 21/03/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
ITO Koichiro (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) Information Frictions, Inertia, and Selection on Elasticity: A Field Experiment on Electricity Tariff Choice
Régulation et Environnement
Le 13/03/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Stéphane Gauthier: Profit taxation and production efficiency. Ecrit avec Guy Laroque (Sciences-Po, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies).
Emeline Bezin: An economic theory of green consumer culture and sustainable technological change
GAUTHIER Stéphane, BEZIN Emeline (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) Profit taxation and production efficiency
Guy Laroque (Sciences-Po, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies)
Régulation et Environnement
Le 06/03/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
ARMSTRONG Mark (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) Ordered Consumer SearchTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 27/02/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We study the incentives of a website to sell its customers? personal information. Third
parties buying that information can either benefi?t or harm consumers, who learn about
their vulnerability to unwanted intrusions through experience. The cost to the website of
selling the information is the risk that bad experience may cause consumers to end their
relationship with the website. The measures adopted by the website to mitigate that
cost are neither contractible nor discernible by consumers. Nevertheless, in equilibrium,
the website has incentives to be cautious about selling information or spend resources to
screen third parties. We characterize the equilibrium privacy policy of the website and its
welfare properties, and discuss the difficulty of welfare-improving regulations.
JULLIEN Bruno (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) Privacy Protection
Yassine Lefouili et Michael Riordan
Régulation et Environnement
Le 20/02/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
SECCHI Angelo: Volatility of growth: size matters.
CHABROST Marion: “Get what you pay for” - The story underneath remunicipalization in the water sector. Co-écrit avec Stéphane Saussier et Simon Porcher.
SECCHI Angelo, CHABROST Marion (PSE, Paris I, Dynamic Border Carbon Adjustment to Enhance Green Growth) Volatility of growth: size matters
Régulation et Environnement
Le 30/01/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The paper analyzes the long-run development of local and global pollution when two types of abatement
activities can be undertaken. One type reduces solely local pollution (e.g., use of particulate
matter filters) while the other mitigates global pollution as well (e.g., application of fuel saving
technologies). In the framework of a 2-country endogenous growth model, the implications
of different degrees to which global externality is internalized are
analyzed. We focus especially on local and global pollution levels and the effects on growth in both countries.
Furthermore we derive implications for optimal policies in the different scenarios.
PITTEL Karen () Thinking Local but Acting Global? The Interplay Between Local and Global Internalization of Externalities
Régulation et Environnement
Le 23/01/2017 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
A key argument in favor of emissions markets (relative to command-and-control types of regulation) is their ability to aggregate dispersed information about abatement costs and emissions and generate price signals to guide firms' trading and abatement decisions. We exploit trading data from the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) to assess the extent to which this market was indeed able to deliver such price signals. We know who traded, when, with whom, on which platform if any, and at what price. Participation was partial, trading patterns differed across categories of market participants and the market was fragmented. We build a model of trading and information aggregation that integrates the salient features of the market and use it to explore their impact on the price formation process. Risk management practices and partial participation help account for some of the price anomalies that have been identified in the past on the basis of the analysis of price time series only.
CANTILLON Estelle () Price formation in the European carbon market: The role of firm participation and risk management practices
Aurélie Slechten, Lancaster Business School
Régulation et Environnement
Le 16/01/2017 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
David MARTIMORT: Towards a Theory of the Precautionary Principle, joint with Louise Guillouet (Columbia) --
Lea TOULEMON: Regional Purchasing Groups and Hospital Medicine Prices: Evidence from Group Creations
MARTIMORT David, TOULEMON Léa () *
Régulation et Environnement
Le 05/12/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
DI FALCO Salvatore () Mother of Invention: the Emergence of the Reluctant Entrepreneur in Rural Ethiopia
Régulation et Environnement
Le 28/11/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
The term ``network effects'' has a clear meaning in the context of economic models, but it is sometimes confused with other concepts like increasing returns to scale and learning-by-doing. This essay is an attempt to clear up some of this confusion.
VARIAN Hal () Use and Abuse of Network Effects
Régulation et Environnement
Le 21/11/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Daniel Herrera Araujo : Multiproduct retailing and buyer power: The effects of product delisting on consumer shopping behavior (joint with Jorge Florez, Universidad del Rosario)
Fanny Henriet: A Decomposition of Fuel Taxes (joint with Stéphane Gauthier)
HENRIET Fanny () Multiproduct retailing and buyer power: The effects of product delisting on consumer shopping behavior
Jorge Florez, Universidad del Rosario / Stéphane Gauthier
Régulation et Environnement
Le 14/11/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
LAURENT-LUCCHETTI Jérémy () Property Rights and Land Disputes: Theory and Evidence from Ethiopia
Salvatore Di Falco, Marcella Veronesi et Gunnar KohlinTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 07/11/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
LINNEMER Laurent () Partial Exclusivity
Philippe Choné et Thibaud Vergé
Régulation et Environnement
Le 17/10/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline: Merchants of Doubt: Corporate Political Influence when Expert Credibility is Uncertain
Riccardo Marchi-Adani: Favoritism in scoring rule auctions:an empirical investigation on Italian
public procurement for canteens
MARCHI ADANI Riccardo () *
Paola ValbonesiTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 10/10/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
Campus jourdan, Bâtiment G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
We provide the first large-scale empirical evaluation of the additionality of the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism, the largest carbon emissions offset mechanism in the world, based on the universe of wind power projects implemented in India during the period 1993-2013. We deal with the self-selection of project developers into the CDM by comparing CDM projects with non-CDM projects, which are by definition not additional. We find strong evidence that the majority of CDM projects are not additional, suggesting that a large share of CDM carbon credits does not represent real emission reductions. Furthermore, the more profitable projects are, the more likely they are to receive carbon credits. Hence, the CDM is doing the opposite of its objective function, i.e. supporting projects that would have existed anyway rather than inframarginal projects.
Dechezlepretre Antoine () Do Pollution Offsets Offset Pollution? Evidence from the Clean Development Mechanism in India
Régulation et Environnement
Le 03/10/2016 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00
Campus jourdan, Bâtiment G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
BELLEFLAMME Paul () Tax Incidence on Competing Two-Sided Platforms: Lucky Break or Double Jeopardy
Eric ToulemondeTexte intégral
Régulation et Environnement
Le 19/09/2016 de 12:00:00 à 14:00:00
Campus jourdan, Bâtiment G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
POUYET Jérôme (PSE) Legislation versus Treaties: the effect on environmental outcomes in an open economy and On the Pro-Competitive Effects of Vertical Mergers in Two-Sided Markets
Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso
Régulation et Environnement
Le 00/00/0000 de 00:00:00 à 00:00:00
G, Rez de chaussée, Salle 10
How can citizens be motivated to demand accountability in the management of public revenues? We use a video survey experiment to provide information, and employ role models to provide encouragement and motivation to act. The experiment focused on petroleum revenue management in Ghana and included over 2300 respondents. Providing information significantly increased satisfaction with current revenue management, though treated participants remained dissatisfied on average. We also found increased intention to demand more accountability through greater debate. The role models had an additional effect: they increased the sense that an individual can influence how petroleum revenues are used; the intention to contact media and to vote differently to ensure better accountability. These changes, however, did not persist, and a follow-up with 925 respondents 2.5 years later later showed few differences between the control and the treated groups. The experiment demonstrates that providing relevant information affects attitudes and planned behavior in the short term, and that role models give valuable encouragement for behavioral change.
LUJALA Paivi, DUGOUA Eugenie, Gillingham Kenneth (PSE) Follow the leader: Using videos to make information on resource revenue management more relevantTexte intégral