Archives du séminaire Job Market Seminar

Job Market Seminar

Le 12/01/2024 de 12:30:00 à 13:45:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


Friday, January 12th, R2-01, 12.30pm-1.45pm Development; Growth; Economic History; International Trade; Political Economy "The consequences of a trade collapse: Economics and politics in Weimar Germany" Bjorn BREY (University of Oxford)

Brey Bjorn () The consequences of a trade collapse: Economics and politics in Weimar Germany

Job Market Seminar

Le 31/01/2023 de 13:00:00 à 14:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


This paper studies the problem of estimating individualized treatment rules when treatment effects are partially identified, as it is often the case with observational data. By drawing connections between the treatment assignment problem and classical decision theory, we characterize several notions of optimal treatment policies in the presence of partial identification. The proposed framework allows to incorporate user-defined constraints on the policies, such as restrictions for transparency or interpretability, while also ensuring computational feasibility. We show that partial identification leads to a novel statistical learning problem with risk directionally – but not fully – differentiable with respect to an infinite-dimensional nuisance component. We propose an estimation procedure that ensures Neyman-orthogonality with respect to the nuisance component and provide statistical guarantees that depend on the amount of concentration around the points of non-differentiability in the data-generating process. The proposed method is illustrated using data from the Job Partnership Training Act study.

D ADAMO Riccardo (University College London) Orthogonal Policy Learning Under Ambiguity


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Job Market Seminar

Le 26/01/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built in environmentally risky areas. Why is new residential development being exposed to such risk? I posit that land-use regulations restricting development in safer areas contribute to this pattern. I study this question in the context of exposure to wildfire risk in the metropolitan area of San Diego, California, where areas unexposed to risk are highly regulated and built out. I estimate a quantitative urban model using detailed spatial data on zoning, density limits, lot size restrictions, wildfire risk, and insurance. In the model, the regulations benefit landowners and reallocate the population to unregulated at-risk areas. These effects depend on estimated disamenities from wildfire risk, insurance access, and the spatial correlations between regulations, wildfire risk, and location amenities. I find that land-use regulations raise citylevel rents by an average 28% and explain 7% of the residents living in fire-prone areas. The estimated present-discounted cost of wildfire risk is $14,149 per person, with existing regulations accounting for 10% of that cost. Over the next 40 years, as wildfire risk intensifies, the population grows, and the current land restrictions become more binding, the number of exposed residents will grow by 12%. The results show that institutions that restrain relocating out of harm’s way, such as land-use regulations, can limit adaptation to climate change.

OSPITAL Augusto (University College London) Urban Policy and Spatial Exposure to Environmental Risk


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Job Market Seminar

Le 24/01/2023 de 13:00:00 à 14:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2

TEBBE Sebastian (University College London) Peer Effects in (Hybrid) Electric Vehicle Adoption: Evidence from the Swedish Vehicle Market


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Job Market Seminar

Le 23/01/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


Bandit models are widely used to capture learning in contexts where agents repeatedly choose actions with uncertain rewards. Examples include firms maximizing profits by experimenting with prices or advertisement, randomized control trials maximizing outcomes by evaluating alternative treatments, and consumers maximizing utility by trying experience goods. A popular bandit algorithm is the upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm. The UCB algorithm requires sub-Gaussian concentration parameters as inputs. In practice, these parameters are unknown so that the UCB algorithm is not fully data-driven. I propose a method to estimate these parameters and use the estimated parameters to conduct inference with Hoeffding’s inequality. I show that asymptotic inference with estimated parameters is valid under mild and optimal under stronger conditions. In finite samples, I establish validity of inference under an anti-concentration condition. Equipped with the proposed estimator for sub-Gaussian concentration parameters, I adapt the UCB algorithm to settings where these parameters are unknown. In an empirical application, I study price experimentation after the liberalization of the spirits market in Washington State in 2012 and find that the adapted UCB algorithm leads to considerably higher profits. My theoretical results can also be applied to non-standard inference problems that arise in partial identification and machine learning.

LIEBER Jonas (University College London) Estimating Concentration Parameters for Bandit Algorithms


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Job Market Seminar

Le 20/01/2023 de 13:00:00 à 14:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


We study how administrative redistricting promotes local development. Exploiting a large episode of voluntary municipality splits in Brazil and a rich panel of administrative and spatial data, we compare paths of development between areas that split and those that did not. We find that splitting had broadly positive effects, with any potential loss of scale from smaller governments being at least partially compensated by extra federal transfers new municipalities received. We find that splitting led to an expansion of the public sector, improvements in public service delivery, and increases in economic activity in new municipalities. We show that autonomy and reductions to administrative distance help explain results beyond simply gains in revenue. Our findings illustrate that decentralization in form of subsidized voluntary administrative redistricting can improve public service delivery in disadvantaged areas.

DAHIS Ricardo (University College London) Development via Administrative Redistricting

Christiane Szerman

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Job Market Seminar

Le 18/01/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


This paper investigates the distributional impacts of implementing the net-zero emissions target in the U.S. for the 2050 horizon. We model a heterogeneous household economy and show that 2050 net-zero policy is welfare enhancing in the long run, but induces short/medium-run distributional costs. We quantify this trade-off by a 0.54% consumption equivalent welfare gain (compared to the laissez-faire) in the long run and a 6-10 percent increase of financially constrained households by 2050. We then show how distributing revenue from the carbon policy could partially offset consumption losses and smooth the net-zero transition. We also extend our analysis to the cases of: i) sticky prices, showing how net-zero emissions induces inflationary pressure over the long run, which could represent a challenge for monetary policy conduction in a world with high inflation, and ii) abatement learning, showing how green innovation decreases carbon prices and boosts consumption over the transition.

BENMIR Ghassane (University College London) The Distributional Costs of Net-Zero: A Heterogeneous Agent Perspective

Josselin Roman

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Job Market Seminar

Le 13/01/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


This paper introduces a new algorithm to conduct robust Bayesian estimation and inference in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The algorithm combines standard Bayesian methods with an equivalence characterization of model solutions. This algorithm allows researchers to perform the following analysis: First, find the complete range of posterior means of both the deep parameters and any parameters of interest robust to the choice of priors in a sense I make precise. Second, derive the robust Bayesian credible region for the model parameters. I prove the validity of this algorithm and apply this method to the models in Cochrane (2011) and An and Schorfheide (2007) to achieve robust estimations for structural parameters and impulse responses. In addition, I conduct a sensitivity analysis of optimal monetary policy rules with respect to the choice of priors and provide bounds to the optimal Taylor rule parameters.

KUANG Yizhou (University College London) Robust Bayesian Estimation and Inference for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models


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Job Market Seminar

Le 12/01/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


Do religions codify ecological principles? This paper explores theoretically and empirically the role religious beliefs play in shaping environmental interactions. I study African Traditional Religions (ATR) which place forests within a sacred sphere. I build a model of non-market interactions of the mean-field type where the actions of agents with heterogeneous religious beliefs continuously affect the spatial density of forest cover. The equilibrium extraction policy shows how individual beliefs and their distribution among the population can be a key driver of forest conservation. The model also characterizes the role of resource scarcity in both individual and population extraction decisions. I test the model predictions empirically relying on the unique case of Benin, where ATR adherence is freely reported. Using an instrumental variable strategy that exploits the variation in proximity to the Benin-Nigerian border, I find that a 1 standard deviation increase in ATR adherence has a 0.4 standard deviation positive impact on forest cover change. I study the impact of historically belonging to the ancient Kingdom of Dahomey, birthplace of the Vodun religion. Using the original boundaries as a spatial discontinuity, I find positive evidence of Dahomey affiliation on contemporary forest change. Lastly, I compare observed forest cover to counterfactual outcomes by simulating the absence of ATR beliefs across the population.

DEOPA Neha (University College London) Sacred Ecology: The Environmental Impact of African Traditional Religions


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Job Market Seminar

Le 11/01/2023 de 12:30:00 à 13:45:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


This paper studies a semiparametric quantile regression model with endogenous variables and random right censoring. The endogeneity issue is solved using instrumental variables. It is assumed that the structural quantile of the logarithm of the outcome variable is linear in the covariates and censoring is independent. The regressors and instruments can be either continuous or discrete. The specification generates a continuum of equations of which the quantile regression coefficients are a solution. Identification is obtained when this system of equations has a unique solution. Our estimation procedure solves an empirical analogue of the system of equations. We derive conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal and prove the validity of a bootstrap procedure for inference. The finite sample performance of the approach is evaluated through numerical simulations. The method is illustrated by an application to the national Job Training Partnership Act study

BEYHUM Jad (CREST, ENSAI) Instrumental variable quantile regression under random right censoring

Lorenzo Tedesco

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Job Market Seminar

Le 09/01/2023 de 12:00:00 à 13:15:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


In studies based on longitudinal data, researchers often assume time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity or linear-in-parameters conditional expectations. Violation of these assumptions may lead to poor counterfactuals. I study the identification and estimation of a large class of nonlinear grouped fixed effects (NGFE) models where the relationship between observed covariates and cross-sectional unobserved heterogeneity is left unrestricted but the latter only takes a restricted number of paths over time. I show that the corresponding “clusters” and the nonparametrically specified link function can be point-identified when both dimensions of the panel are large. I propose a semiparametric NGFE estimator and establish its large sample properties in popular binary and count outcome models. Distinctive features of the NGFE estimator are that it is asymptotically normal unbiased at parametric rates, and it allows for the number of periods to grow slowly with the number of cross-sectional units. Monte Carlo simulations suggest good finite sample performance. I apply this new method to revisit the so- called inverted-U relationship between product market competition and innovation. Allowing for clustered patterns of time-varying unobserved heterogeneity leads to a less pronounced inverted-U relationship.

MUGNIER Martin (CREST, ENSAI) Unobserved Clusters of Time-Varying Heterogeneity in Nonlinear Panel Data Models


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Job Market Seminar

Le 30/01/2015 de 12:30:00 à 13:45:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


This paper proposes new nonparametric tests for treatment eects when the out- come of interest, typically a duration, is subjected to right censoring. Our tests are based on Kaplan-Meier integrals, and do not rely on distributional assumptions, shape restrictions, nor on restricting the potential treatment eect heterogeneity across dif- ferent subpopulations. The proposed tests are consistent against xed alternatives and can detect nonparametric alternatives converging to the null at the parametric n????1=2-rate, n being the sample size. Finite sample properties of the proposed tests are examined by means of a Monte Carlo study. We illustrate the use of the proposed pol- icy evaluation tools by studying the eect of labor market programs on unemployment duration based on experimental and observational datasets.

SANT'ANNA Pedro H.C. (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ) Nonparametric Tests for Conditional Treatment Effects with Duration Outcomes


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Job Market Seminar

Le 29/01/2015 de 12:30:00 à 13:45:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


We study the validity of the pairs bootstrap for Lasso estimators in linear regression models with random covariates and heteroscedastic error terms. We show that the naive pairs bootstrap does not consistently estimate the distribution of the Lasso estimator. In particular, we identify two different sources for the failure of the bootstrap. First, in the bootstrap samples the Lasso estimator fails to correctly mimic the population moment condition satisfied by the regression parameter. Second, the bootstrap Lasso estimation criterion does not reproduce the sign of the zero coefficients with sufficient accuracy. To overcome these problems we introduce a modified pairs bootstrap procedure that consistently estimates the distribution of the Lasso estimator. Finally, we consider also the adaptive Lasso estimator. Also in this case, we show that the modified pairs bootstrap consistently estimates the distribution of the adaptive Lasso estimator. Monte Carlo simulations confirm a desirable accuracy of the modified pairs bootstrap procedure. These results show that when properly defined the pairs bootstrap may provide a valid approach for estimating the distribution of Lasso estimators.

CAMPONOVO Lorenzo (University of St.Gallen) On the Validity of the Pairs Bootstrap for Lasso Estimators


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Job Market Seminar

Le 27/01/2015 de 12:30:00 à 13:45:00

In this paper I present a new model of dyadic link formation for directed networks that extends the classical model by Holland and Leinhardt 1981. Agents are endowed with unobserved effects that govern their ability to establish links (productivity) and to receive links (popularity). The unobserved effects are modelled by a fixed effects approach allowing for arbitrary correlation between the observed homophily component and latent sources of degree heterogeneity. The model can be estimated by conditional ML but inference is non-standard due to the incidental parameters problem (Neyman and Scott 1948). I consider estimation of the parametric part of the linking model as well as estimation of a measure of network transitivity. Moreover, I suggest a specification test for the dyadic model based on predicted transitivity. My approach overcomes the incidental parameters problem by using explicit correction formulas based on an asymptotic approximation that sends the number of agents to infinity. My simulation design suggests promising finite sample performance. A linking model neglecting unobserved sources of degree heterogeneity predicts an insuficient amount of transitivity. This effect is proven for a stylized model and its empirical relevance is confirmed using data on favor networks in Indian villages. In this application, a transitivity statistic changes sign when unobserved agent effects are added. This suggests that, in the real world, unobserved heterogeneity may be a primary driver of local clustering behavior.

DZEMSKI Andreas (University of Mannheim) An empirical model of dyadic link formation in a network with unobserved heterogeneity


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Job Market Seminar

Le 21/01/2015 de 12:30:00 à 13:45:00

Statistical inference about a scalar parameter is often performed using the two-sided ttest. In extremum problems, where the estimator satises the restrictions on the parameter space - such as the nonnegativity of a variance parameter -, the test suers from size distortions when the true parameter vector is near or at the boundary of the parameter space. Nevertheless, the two-sided t-test continues to be used when estimates are found to be close to the boundary. This can be attributed to a lack of inference procedures that appropriately account for boundary eects on the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. To address this issue, we propose an estimator that is asymptotically normally distributed, even when the true parameter vector is near or at the boundary, and the objective function is not dened outside the parameter space. The novel estimator allows the implementation of several existing testing procedures and a new test based on the Conditional Likelihood Ratio statistic (CLR). Compared to the existing procedures, the new test is easy to implement and has good power properties. Moreover, it oers power advantages over the two-sided t-test, when the latter controls size. We also show the test to be admissible when inference is performed with respect to a scalar parameter. We apply the test to the random coecients logit model using data on the European car market and nd more evidence of heterogeneity in consumer preferences than suggested by the two-sided t-test.

KETZ Philipp (Brown University) Testing near or at the Boundary of the Parameter Space


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Job Market Seminar

Le 19/01/2015 de 12:15:00 à 13:30:00

This paper presents a method of calculating sharp bounds on the average treatment effect using linear programming under identifying assumptions commonly used in the literature. This new method provides a sensitivity analysis of the identifying assumptions and missing data in an application regarding the effect of parent’s schooling on children’s schooling. Even a mild departure from identifying assumptions may substantially widen the bounds on average treatment effects. Allowing for a small fraction of the data to be missing also has a large impact on the results.

LAFFERS Lukas (Norwegian School of Economics ) Bounding Average Treatment Effects using Linear Programming


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Job Market Seminar

Le 16/01/2014 de 13:00:00 à 14:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


This paper develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous investors and sovereign default to analyze the dynamic link between banking sector capitalization and sovereign bond yields. The banking sector is modelled as operating under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint, which can bind occasionally. As default risk rises, the constraint may bind, generating a fall in demand for sovereign bonds that can be accompanied by a rise in the risk premium if other agents are more risk averse. In turn, the rise in risk premium leads to a feedback eect through debt accumulation dynamics and the probability of government default. The model can be quantied and allows for the analysis of the eect on yields of recent unconventional monetary policies, such as the European Central Bank's Long Term Renancing Operations.

COIMBRA Nuno (London Business School) Sovereigns at Risk : A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage


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Job Market Seminar

Le 15/01/2014 de 13:00:00 à 14:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


We study cooperative and non-cooperative scal policy in an open economy model where cross-country risk sharing is imperfect and countries face terms of trade externalities. We show that the optimal form of scal cooperation, or scal union, is dened by one parameter: the Armington elasticity of substitution between goods from dierent countries. We prove that members of a scal union should: (1) harmonize steady state income tax rates when the Armington elasticity is low in order to ameliorate terms of trade externalities; and (2) send scal transfers across countries when the Armington elasticity is high in order to improve risk sharing. Our analytical predictions hold both outside of and within currency unions. For standard calibrations, we nd that the welfare gain from the optimal scal union is as high as 5% of permanent consumption when countries are able to trade safe government bonds, and can approach 20% when countries lose access to international nancial markets. We also nd that labor mobility signicantly improves welfare and alleviates the need for a transfer union entirely

HODDENBAGH Jonathan (Boston College) The Optimal Design of a Fiscal Union

Co-author(s) : Mikhail Dmitriev

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Job Market Seminar

Le 14/01/2014 de 13:00:00 à 14:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2


A government that faces an unsustainably high debt burden can either inflate the value of its debt away or default on it outright. In this paper I study this decision and how it interacts with the denomination of sovereign debt. I build a model in which the government lacks commitment to its borrowing, inflation, and default policy. Default is endogenous and costly; inflation is distortionary because of a cash in advance constraint on consumption. Issuing real instead of nominal debt has two effects in the model. On the one hand, real debt reduces the incentive to create costly inflation today because the value of the debt is fixed in real terms. It thus helps mitigate the commitment problem. On the other hand, precisely because the commitment problem is smaller, inducing future inflation is less costly when debt is real, and real debt facilitates more debt accumulation over time, causing the government to resort to the printing press after all to finance the debt burden. I quantify these effects in a calibrated version of the model and show that the second effect tends to dominate: Inflation, and default rates are higher in a real debt economy compared with an otherwise identical nominal debt economy. This is consistent with empirical regularities: across emerging markets over the last two decades, high nominal debt shares have been associated with low inflation and default rates.

SUNDER - PLASSMANN Laura (University of Minnesota) Inflation, default and the denomination of sovereign debt


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Job Market Seminar

Le 08/02/2013 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00

This paper studies the dynamic Ramsey taxation of foreign assets in a small open economy model with international mobility of capital. The benevolent government of the small open economy chooses taxes on factors of local production and net foreign assets to finance an exogenous stochastic stream of government expenditures. The government can fully commit to future policies and balanced budgets, and can observe net foreign assets at the aggregate level but not the resident household’s individual accounts. The paper finds that the optimal tax scheme replicates a flat tax rate on households total assets, no matter whether they are held at home or abroad. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that it is optimal to tax foreign assets and physical capital rents to insure against fiscal shocks, while the expected burden of fiscal expenditures is mostly borne by labor income. The welfare gains of introducing the tax on foreign assets according to the Ramsey policy are quantified between 2.3 percent and 0.4 percent of annual consumption. The results can be related to the bilateral withholding tax agreements that Austria and the United Kingdom signed with Switzerland in the ongoing European debt crises.

MÜLLER Andreas (University of Zurich) Optimal Taxation of Foreign Assets and Production Factors in a Small Open Economy


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Job Market Seminar

Le 06/02/2013 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00

Though new media has become a popular source of information, it is less clear whether or not they have a real impact on economic activity. In authoritarian regimes, where the traditional media are not free, this potential impact might be especially important. We study consequences of blog postings of a popular Russian anti-corruption blogger and shareholder activist Alexei Navalny on the stock prices of state-controlled companies. In an event-study analysis, we find a negative effect of company-related blog postings on both daily abnormal returns and within-day 5-minute returns. To cope with identification problem, we use the incidence of distributed denial-of-services (DDoS) attacks as a variable that negatively affects blog postings, but is uncorrelated with other determinants of asset prices. There is a substantial positive effect of the DDoS attacks on abnormal returns of the companies Navalny wrote about, and this effect is increasing in amount of his attention to these companies. The effect is decreasing in attention to posts of other top bloggers, increasing in visitors’ attention to Navalny’s posts, and is consistent with more pronounced individual, in contrast to institutional, trading. Finally, there are long-term effects of certain types of posts on stock returns, trading volume, and volatility. Overall, our evidence implies that blog postings about corruption in state-controlled companies have a negative causal impact on stock performance of these companies.

PETROVA Maria (Princeton and New Economic School) Do political blogs matter? Corruption in state-controlled companies, blog postings, and DDoS attacks

Co-auteurs : Ruben Enikolopov and Konstantin Sonin

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Job Market Seminar

Le 04/02/2013 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00

This paper studies theoretically and experimentally the properties of plurality and approval voting when a majority gets divided by information imperfections. The majority faces two challenges: aggregating information to select the best majority candidate and coordinating to defeat the minority candidate. Under plurality, the majority cannot achieve both goals at once. Under approval voting, it can : welfare is strictly higher because some voters approve of both majority alternatives. In the laboratory, we ?nd (i) strong evidence of strategic voting under both voting rules, and (ii) superiority of approval voting over plurality. Finally, subject behavior suggests the need to study equilibria in asymmetric strategies.

LLORENTE-SAGUER Aniol (Max Planck Institute) Divided Majority and Information Aggregation: Theory and Experiment

Co-auteurs : Laurent Bouton and Micael Castanheira

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Job Market Seminar

Le 21/01/2013 de 13:15:00 à 14:45:00

This paper studies, both theoretically and experimentally, the pricing strategy of a ?rm that faces a consumer who is "rationally inattentive" to product quality (Sims [2003]). In a standard sequential pricing game, rational inattention to quality produces two types of mixed strategy perfect Bayesian equilibria: one where sellers pool at a low price and buyers are fully inattentive to quality and one where there is semi-pooling at a high price and buyers are selectively attentive to quality. I characterize these equilibria for all possible attentional costs and show that the welfare e¤ects of policies designed to lower attentional costs can di¤er substantially between equilibria. To determine if either type of equilibria can explain actual behavior, I run an experiment in which sellers of hypothetical products face buyers who have real attentional costs in becoming informed about product quality. I ?nd strong evidence of the equilibrium with semi-pooling at a high price. Buyers attend enough to allow high quality sellers to price high, but only enough to make low quality sellers indi¤erent between pricing high or low. This attentional e¤ort makes the observed semi-pooling a best response for sellers and is shown to be consistent with rational inattention.

MARTIN Daniel (New York University) Strategic Pricing with Rational Inattention to Quality


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Job Market Seminar

Le 18/01/2013 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00

A consensus has emerged that agglomeration economies can at least partially explain why ?rms cluster next to each other. Disagreement remains, however, over the sources of these agglomeration e¤ects. In this paper I present direct empirical evidence on the role of ?rm-to-?rm labor mobility in enhancing the productivity of ?rms located near other highly productive ?rms. Using matched employer-employee and balance sheet data for Veneto, a region of Italy with many successful industry clusters of small and medium ?rms, I ?rst identify a set of high-wage ?rms (HWF). I show that these ?rms have higher labor productivity and higher intangible capital per worker than other ?rms in the same industry. I then show that hiring a worker with HWF experience singi?cantly increases the productivity of other (non-HWF) ?rms. This productivity e¤ect is not driven by unobserved productivity shocks that are correlated with the propensity to hire workers with HWF experience. A simulation exercise suggests that worker ?ows can explain 10-20 percent of the productivity gains experienced by other ?rms when high-productivity ?rms in the same industry are added to a local labor market.

SERAFINELLI Michel (University of California, Berkeley) Good Firms, Worker Flows and Productivity


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Job Market Seminar

Le 16/01/2013 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00

This paper demonstrates that China's high environmental pollution levels can partly be explained by the incentives embedded in the country's political institutions. Guided by a simple career concerns model with the choice of dirty and clean technologies, I examine empirically how promotion incentives of provincial governors aect pollution. To nd exogenous variation in promotion incentives, I explore within-governor variation in connections with key ocials due to reshuing at the center and document the fact that connections are complementary to economic performance for governors' promotion. The data conrms the model prediction that connections increase pollution. Auxiliary predictions of the model are also conrmed by the data. First, a higher relative price of clean technologies increases the use of dirty technologies, and this substitution eect is strengthened by connections. Second, the impact of connections on pollution is more than proportional to their impact on GDP. The evidence from dierent sources of data is consistent with the interpretation that connections aect the eorts and policy choices of politicians.

RUIXUE Jia (Stockholm University) Pollution for Promotion


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Job Market Seminar

Le 22/02/2010 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2

FUENTES-ALBERO Cristina (University of Pennsylvania ) Financial Frictions, the Financial Immoderation, and the Great Moderation ; () ;

La séance est annulée

Job Market Seminar

Le 19/02/2010 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00

ROYS Nicolas (CEMMAP ) Estimating Labor Market Rigidities with Heterogeneous Firms ; () ;

La séance est annulée

Job Market Seminar

Le 18/02/2010 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00

ESER Fabian (Nuffield College) Monetary Policy in a Currency Union with Heterogeneous Limited Asset Markets Participation ; () ;

La séance est annulée

Job Market Seminar

Le 17/02/2010 de 12:30:00 à 14:00:00

Formed in the mid-nineteenth century, the building societies grew rapidly from their humble beginnings as localised ‘self-help’ institutions to become the dominant player in the house mortgage market by the inter-war period. Throughout their early history, the movement presented itself as a champion of home ownership and thrift among the working classes, but historians of housing however have generally disputed the role that building societies played, or could have played, in extending home ownership before the First World War. The case study presented in this paper shows that it was possible for a building society to lend to working-class borrowers, and that home ownership was therefore not beyond the grasp of such people. While it was undoubtedly an exception within the movement, the case study showed a genuine commitment to working-class owner-occupation, providing the majority of its loans to both skilled and unskilled workers on easy repayment terms. How it was able to overcome the adverse selection and moral hazard risks involved in lending to such groups of people is the focus of this paper.

SAMY Luke (Nuffield College) Microfinance and home ownership in Britain before the First World War: The case of the Co-operative Permanent Building Society c.1880-1913

SEMINAIRE JOINT AVEC LE SEMINAIRE D'HISTOIRE ECONOMIQUE

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Job Market Seminar

Le 16/02/2010 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2

MUKHERJEE Rahul (University of Michigan) Country Portfolios with Imperfect Corporate Governance


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Job Market Seminar

Le 15/02/2010 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00

MORAL-BENITO Enrique (CEMFI ) *; () ;

La séance est annulée

Job Market Seminar

Le 12/02/2010 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2

CACCIATORE Matteo (Boston College) International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Labor Market Frictions


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Job Market Seminar

Le 11/02/2010 de 16:30:00 à 18:00:00

MENKULASI Jeta (University of Maryland ) Rational Inattention and Changes in Macroeconomic Volatility


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Job Market Seminar

Le 10/02/2010 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2

TRAUM Nora (Indiana University) Does Government Debt Crowd out Investment ? A Bayesian DGSE Approach

co-auteur(s) : Shu-Chun s. Yang

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Job Market Seminar

Le 09/02/2010 de 16:30:00 à 18:00:00

ZHU Shenghao (New-York University) Wealth Distribution under Idiosyncratic Investment Risk


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Job Market Seminar

Le 08/02/2010 de 12:00:00 à 13:30:00

Bâtiment A, Rez de chaussée, Salle 2

MATTHES Christian (New-York University) *

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