Calendrier du mois de mai 2024
| Programme de la semaine précédente | Programme de la semaine | Programme de la semaine suivante | |
| (du 2024-03-04 au 2024-03-11) | (du 2024-03-11 au 2024-03-17) | (du 2024-03-17 au 2024-03-24) |
Semaine du 2024-03-11 au 2024-03-17 |
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 15/03/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
OH Suanna (PSE)
Gender Quotas and Enforcement of Norms: an Investigation in the Context of Digital Work
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 15/03/2024 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1-14
DAVIES Ron (University College Dublin)
Tax Haven Use and Employment Decisions: Evidence from Norway
écrit avec with Johannes Scheuerer
While profit-shifting practices by multinational enterprises have received considerable attention in recent years for their impact on tax revenues, their real economic consequences remain poorly understood. In this paper, we use administrative data for the universe of Norwegian firms and workers to study employment responses to aggressive tax planning. We exploit variation in the timing of establishing corporate ownership presence in a tax haven to show that tax haven use is associated with lower employment growth. The granularity of the data allows us to uncover heterogeneity across worker groups, with the negative effects being strongest for service-sector employees in the highest occupations.In examining the potential of tax avoidance to shape labor market outcomes, this paper highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of the socioeconomic implications of profit shifting beyond foregone government revenues.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 14/03/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
BHANDARI Anmol (University of Minnesota)
A Perturbational Approach for Approximating Heterogeneous-Agent Models
écrit avec Thomas Bourany, David Evans, and Mikhail Golosov
We develop a perturbational technique to approximate equilibria of a wide class of discrete-time dy-
namic stochastic general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent models with complex state spaces, including
multi-dimensional distributions of endogenous variables. We show that approximating policy functions
and stochastic process that governs the distributional state to any order is equivalent to solving small
systems of linear equations that characterize values of certain directional derivatives. We analytically
derive the coefficients of these linear systems and show that they satisfy simple recursive relations,
making their numerical implementation quick and efficient. Compared to existing state-of-the-art tech-
niques, our method is faster in constructing first-order approximations and extends to higher orders,
capturing the effects of risk that are ignored by many current methods. We illustrate how to apply
our method to a broad set of questions such as impacts of first- and second-moment shocks, welfare
effect of macroeconomic risk and stabilization policies, endogenous household portfolio formation, and
transition dynamics in heterogeneous agent general equilibrium settings.
Texte intégral
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 14/03/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R2-21
BORISOVA Polina (PSE)
Hyperbolic Experimentation
écrit avec Nikhil Vellodi
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 14/03/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R1-09
HELM Ines (LMU Munich)
Displacement Effects in Manufacturing and Structural Change
écrit avec Alice Kügler and Uta Schönberg
We investigate the consequences of structural change for workers displaced from the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing establishments traditionally employed low- and high-wage workers in similar proportions and paid substantial wage premiums to both types of workers. Structural change has led to the disappearance of these jobs, particularly for low-wage workers. Decomposing displacement wage losses, we show that low-wage workers suffer considerable losses in establishment premiums following displacement, whereas high-wage workers tend to fall down the match quality ladder. With ongoing structural change, losses in wages and establishment premiums have increased over time, especially for low-wage workers, in part because they are increasingly forced to switch to low-knowledge service jobs where establishment premiums are low. Our findings further highlight that structural change and layoffs in manufacturing have significantly contributed to job polarization and the rise in assortative matching of workers to firms.
Behavior seminar
Du 14/03/2024 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
SCHOENMAECKERS Jérôme (HEC Liège, CIRIEC)
We are not all equal! Impact of socio-economic status on loss of autonomy in the old age
écrit avec Mathieu Lefebvre, Université de Strasbourg; Jérôme Schoenmaeckers, HEC-Liège
We use data from the SHARE and HRS surveys (2010-2020) to estimate the relationship between socio-economic status, mortality, risk and duration of dependency for people aged 50 and over. The results show that wealthier individuals have a higher probability of survival, regardless of the estimation method used (OLS or IV). The strength of this relationship varies from country to country, and in Europe we observe that in the more Bismarckian countries wealth explains survival more than in the Beveridgian countries. Finally, on the basis of a Cox survival model, we also show that the least wealthy individuals are those who have a greater probability of becoming dependent, but also those who experience the longest periods of loss of autonomy in old age. Our results therefore identify a triple penalty linked to socio-economic status, summarised by the finding that the poorest people live for a shorter time, are more likely to become dependent and do so for a longer period.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 13/03/2024 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2.01
VOORS Maarten ()
Effects of economic and social incentives on bureaucratic quality: Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone
Using a field experiment implemented in Sierra Leone we examine the joint effects of local selection, local monitoring, and incentivized payment mechanisms. We find evidence consistent with past literature that social pressure improves quality. These gains however are no better than gains from simple direct payment mechanisms that involve similar direct but lower social costs. There is weak evidence of crowding out effects. We find no effects of varying selection mechanisms. Analysis of a structural model identifies conditions under which social or economic incentives are more or less likely to be effective.
Histoire des entreprises et de la finance
Du 13/03/2024 de 16:00 à 17:30
R2.02 (salle Rebérioux )
BONHOURE Emilie (Kedge Business School )
A Long-Term Perspective on Ownership: the Case of Saint-Gobain
Economic History Seminar
Du 13/03/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
KERSTING Felix (Humboldt University Berlin)
Industrialization, returns, inequality (Co-authors: Thilo Albers and Timo Stieglitz)
écrit avec Thilo Albers and Timo Stieglitz
How does revolutionary technological change impact wealth inequality? We turn to the mother of all technological shocks–the Industrial Revolution–and analyze its role for wealth concentration both empirically and theoretically. Based on a novel dataset on wealth shares at the level of Prussian counties, we provide causal evidence on the positive effect of industrialization on the top percentile's wealth share and the inequality among top fortunes. We show that this relationship between industrialization, wealth concentration, and tail fattening is consistent with both cross-country data on national wealth distributions and with a new individual-level dataset of Prussian millionaires. We disentangle the mechanisms underlyi ng the observed wealth concentration and tail fattening by introducing a dynamic two-sector structure into an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous returns to capital. In particular, we study the role of sector-specific scale dependence, i.e., the positive correlation of rates of return and wealth in industry, and dynastic type dependence in returns, i.e., the gradual one-directional transition of wealth-holders from the low-return traditional to the high-return industrial sector. The simulations suggest that the combination of these two features explains about half of the total increase of the top-1% share, while the other half resulted from the general increase and higher dispersion of returns induced by the emerging industrial sector.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 12/03/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
R3-71
ALHAGE Rind (PSE)
Flexible electrolyzer operation: rethinking hydrogen supply and industrial demand in France by 2030
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 12/03/2024 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
RAUCH Ferdinand (Heidelberg)
Identifying Agglomeration Shadows: Long-run Evidence from Ancient Ports
écrit avec R. Hornbeck and G. Michaels
We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated by endogenous city formation, however, and a "wave interference" that we show in simulations. We use the locations of ancient Mediterranean ports, which seeded modern cities, to estimate shadows cast on nearby areas. These patterns extend to modern city locations, more generally, and illustrate how encouraging growth in particular places can discourage growth of nearby areas.
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 12/03/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
MURARD Elie (University of Trento)
News, emotions, and policy views on immigration
How do emotions affect policy views on immigration? How do they influence the way people process and respond to factual information? We address these questions by using a survey experiment in Italy, which randomly exposes around 7,000 participants either to (i) sensational news about immigrant crimes, (ii) statistical information about immigration, (iii) or to the combination of both. First, we find different effects of news depending on the emotional load of the reported crime: while the news of a rape against a young woman significantly increases the demand for anti-immigration policies, there is no impact of the news of a petty theft. Consistent with a causal role of emotions, we find that the rape news triggers a stronger emotional reaction than the theft news, while having the same effect on factual beliefs. Second, we document that information provision corrects factual beliefs, irrespective of whether participants are also exposed to the rape news. Yet, the exposure to the rape news strongly influences whether belief updating translates into change in policy views: when presented in isolation, information tends to reduce anti-immigration views; when combined with the rape news, the impact of the latter dominates and participants increase their anti-immigration views to the same extent as when exposed to the rape news only. This evidence suggests that, once negative emotions are triggered, having more accurate factual knowledge no longer matters for forming policy views on immigration.
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 11/03/2024 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
CASTRO-PIRES Henrique (University of Surrey)
The Effect of Exit Rights on Cost-based Procurement Contracts (with Rodrigo Andrade and Humberto Moreira)
We examine the principal-agent problem concerning the design of a procurement contract for a firm that acquires information gradually and possesses exit rights. In the initial period, the firm receives a private signal regarding the project's cost. By the subsequent period, the firm gains full knowledge of the cost and determines whether to terminate the contract. Our findings indicate that for substantial ex-post outside option values, the optimal mechanism resembles a cost-plus contract. This implies that transfers are not contingent on ex-ante cost estimates but solely on actual costs. Our proof accommodates a cost-overrun interpretation of this result: we demonstrate that any non-cost-plus contract, which appears economically advantageous for the principal over the optimal cost-plus contract, induces incentives for the firm to misreport its expected cost and exercise the ex-post outside option in the event of high realized costs. Furthermore, we establish that, in contrast to scenarios lacking exit rights, competition among multiple firms for the project fails to eliminate firms' information rents, even in settings with an infinite number of competitors
Econometrics Seminar
Du 11/03/2024 de 16:15 à 17:30
Sciences Po, room H405
MENZEL Konrad (NYU)
Transfer Estimates for Causal Effects across Heterogeneous Sites
We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (sites/contexts). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across several experimental sites in which an intervention has already been implemented to a new target site for which a baseline survey of unit-specific, pre-treatment outcomes and relevant attributes is available. We propose a transfer estimator that exploits cross-sectional variation between individuals and sites to predict treatment outcomes using baseline outcome data for the target location. We consider the problem of determining the optimal finite-dimensional feature space in which to solve that prediction problem. Our approach is design-based in the sense that the performance of the predictor is evaluated given the specific, finite selection of experimental and target sites. Our approach is nonparametric, and our formal results concern the construction of an optimal basis of predictors as well as convergence rates for the estimated conditional average treatment effect relative to the constrained-optimal population predictor for the target site. We illustrate our approach using a combined data set of five multi-site randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the effect of conditional cash transfers on school attendance.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 11/03/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
ZHANG Shuang (Imperial College London)
*Microclimate risks and urban businesses
A heat wave pans out differently across areas within a city. This paper documents these microclimate variations, estimates the damage function on urban small businesses, and studies mitigation strategies. We: (1) leverage high-resolution satellite data to document sub-city temperature variations during a hot day; (2) use geo-located revenue and consumer traffic data from over 150,000 restaurants and other eatery service establishments in a mega city of China to estimate the damage function of these microclimate shocks on business outcomes; and (3) present new evidence that urban green spaces around businesses mitigate the microclimate shocks they experience. Our research highlights location microclimate management as an important part of business strategies in the face of rising climate risks.