Calendrier du mois de mai 2024
| Programme de la semaine précédente | Programme de la semaine | Programme de la semaine suivante | |
| (du 2024-04-15 au 2024-04-22) | (du 2024-04-22 au 2024-04-28) | (du 2024-04-28 au 2024-05-05) |
Semaine du 2024-04-22 au 2024-04-28 |
Casual Friday Development Seminar - Brown Bag Seminar
Du 26/04/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-09
MALLIA Paola (PSE)
Colour-blind to the Obvious: Evidence on Informing Farmers about Traits of Ag Technologies
EU Tax Observatory Seminar
Du 26/04/2024 de 12:00 à 13:00
Salle R1.14
WAMSER Georg (Tübingen University)
Effective Corporate Income Taxation and Corruption
écrit avec with Peter Egger, Sean Mc Auliffe and Valeria Merlo
We show that effective corporate income taxes are lower in EU NUTS 2 regions where citizens perceive corruption to be comparatively more prevalent. We develop a new approach for calculating region-industry-year-specific empirical effective income tax rates (EEITRs) using firm-entity-level income statement data. Controlling for proxies for deductions that could legally be claimed (e.g., depreciation allowances, deduction of interest payments, potential for loss carryforwards, preferential treatment of patent revenues) and additional controls (e.g., regional GDP), as well as country-industry-year fixed effects, our benchmark model suggests that a one standard deviation increase in corruption leads to a statistically significant decrease in EEITRs of approximately 0.4 percentage points. From an economic point of view, this effect is sizeable given that the between-region within-country differences in corruption are significant. Our findings suggest more tax evasion in regions with high corruption via overstated tax-base deductions.
PSE Internal Seminar
Du 26/04/2024 de 12:00 à 13:00
HUANG Yuchen(PSE)
ELLISON Sara(MIT)
Non-Meritocrats or Conformist Meritocrats? A Redistribution Experiment in China and France
Recent empirical evidence contends that meritocratic ideals are mainly a Western phenomenon. Intriguingly, the Chinese people appear to not differentiate between merit- and luck-based inequalities, despite their rich historical legacy of meritocratic institutions. We propose that this phenomenon might be due to the Chinese public's greater adherence towards the status quo. In order to test this hypothesis, we run an incentivized redistribution experiment with elite university students in China and France, by varying the initial split of payoffs between two real-life workers to redistribute from. We show that Chinese respondents consistently and significantly choose more non-redistribution (playing the status quo) across both highly unequal and relatively equal status quo scenarios than our French respondents. Additionally, we also show that the Chinese sample does differentiate between merit- and luck-based inequalities, and does not redistribute less than the French absent status quo conformity. Ultimately, we contend that such a phenomenon is indicative of low political agency rather than apathy, inattention, or libertarian beliefs among the Chinese. Notably, our findings show that Chinese individuals' conformity to the status quo is particularly pronounced among those from families of working-class and farming backgrounds, while it is conspicuously absent among individuals whose families have closer ties to the private sector........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Vacation home rental websites like VRBO and AirBNB are close-to-textbook examples of how web-enabled reductions in transactions costs could lead to substantial improvements in social welfare through more efficient use of a fixed resource. Such websites, however, have attracted a great deal of criticism from the very start. If houses become easier to rent online to vacationers, for instance, then houses in the primary-home market may be shifted to the rental market, exacerbating shortages and driving up prices for primary homebuyers. We use two comprehensive and detailed data sets—one on New Hampshire housing stock and transactions over the past twenty years and one on personal mobility from cell-phone pings—to identify vacation-appropriate homes and then examine the changes in the markets for both vacation homes and primary homes, and the spillovers between them.
Macroeconomics Seminar
Du 25/04/2024 de 16:00 à 17:15
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-21
RUGGIERI Alessandro (CUNEF Universidad)
Misallocation and Inequality
écrit avec N.Guner (CEMFI)
We document how inequality in wage and salary earnings varies with GDP per capita for a large set of countries. The mean-to-median ratio and the Gini coefficient decline as we move from poorer to richer countries. Yet, this decline masks divergent patterns: while inequality at the top of the earnings distribution falls, inequality at the bottom increases. We interpret these facts within a model economy with heterogeneous workers and firms, featuring industry dynamics, search frictions, and skill accumulation of workers through on-the-job learning and training. The benchmark economy is calibrated to the UK. We then study how the earnings distribution changes with distortions that penalize high-productivity firms and frictions that reduce match formation. Distortions and frictions reduce employment, average firm size, and GDP per capita. They also affect how much firms are willing to pay workers, how well high-skill workers are matched with high-productivity firms, and how much training workers receive. The model generates the observed cross-country relation between GDP per capita and earnings inequality and a host of cross-country facts on firm size distribution, firms’ training decisions, and workers’ life-cycle and job tenure earnings profiles.
PEPES (Paris Empirical Political Economics) Working Group
Du 25/04/2024 de 12:30 à 14:00
Room H405 at Sciences Po
REYNAL-QUEROL Marta (UPF)
The Colonial Origins of State Capacity: Evidence from Spanish Conquerors in Latin America
écrit avec Tim Besley
This paper documents a link between the colonial conquerors of specific areas in Latin America and modern development as measured by luminosity in 2010. The findings suggest that the level of education of the conqueror is a potential determinant of this link. The relationship holds when looking solely at within-country variation and when we look at spatially contiguous areas in the same country that have different conquerors. We also find evidence supporting the idea that durable investments in the organization of the state that built state capacities is the main source of persistence by looking at measures of state capacity at three different dates.
TOM (Théorie, Organisation et Marchés) Lunch Seminar
Du 25/04/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
R1-13
SATPATHY Aviman (PSE)
Navigating Complexity in Choice under Uncertainty: Coarse Payoff-Assessment Learning Model
écrit avec Philippe Jehiel
We introduce the novel Coarse Payoff-Assessment Learning (CPAL) model that describes reinforcement learning in agents who tend to simplify the choice problems they face by focusing on the aggregate consequences of choosing over different clusters of alternatives (pre-arranged into exogenously defined similarity classes) instead of assessing each alternative individually. This technique is especially relevant in choice problems with uncertainty where the overall set of alternatives is too large to be considered extensively. We consider a smooth version of such a learning model and apply it to families of decision problems that differ in the set of available similarity classes. We first note that the steady-states of the learning dynamics correspond to a smooth (quantal) version of the Valuation Equilibrium [Jehiel and Samet, 2007]. We present examples of choice problems that reveal the possibility of multiple equilibria and verify the local asymptotic stability of pure equilibria. In contrast, we also identify conditions under which a unique, fully mixed equilibrium emerges - characterized by identical valuations across all similarity classes involved in the mixing, although the agent almost surely selects the alternative with the highest valuation. In particular, when the trivial decision problems involving a single similarity class lead to sufficiently high payoffs, we show that the latter arises, and we prove that the unique steady-state (that involves uniform randomisation) is globally asymptotically stable in the learning dynamics.
Travail et économie publique externe
Du 25/04/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
PSE- 48 boulevard Jourdan, 74014 Paris, salle R2-21
MACHIN Stephen (London School of Economics)
Government Contracting and Living Wages > Minimum Wages
écrit avec Nikhil Datta
Government procurement accounts for a significant share of GDP, and environmental,
social and corporate governance (ESG) clauses in government contracts have become
common across developed economies. This paper studies one of these clauses: living wages
that are set considerably higher than mandated minimum wages. When a local government
in the UK signs up to become a living wage employer, as a significant number did in the
time period we study, firms that have procurement contracts with them have to pay workers
the living wage. This variation is studied with rich matched data on workers in
establishments for a service sector company with many establishments located across the
country. Just under half of the firm’s establishments were made to comply with the living
wage as a consequence of the local government becoming a living wage employer in the
period between 2011 and 2019. In a staggered difference-in-differences research design,
low wage workers are shown to receive a significant wage boost from the living wage
introduction. Consistent with a model of monopsony power and where bottom-of-the-rung
workers and supervisors are gross complements, the living wage induced labour-labour
substitution in favour of the former. Further adjustment to the wage bill increase from the
introduction of the living wage took place through within-establishment internal changes to
the establishment pay policy structures. The overall result was that the Company was able
to absorb the wage cost shock embodied in living wage adoption in a way that significantly
narrowed establishment wage inequality.
Texte intégral
Behavior seminar
Du 25/04/2024 de 11:00 à 12:00
R2-21
COLSON-SIHRA Eve (Department of Economics and PPE Program, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
How Sticky are Consumption Stereotypes? Evidence from the Meat Gender Gap
Using consumer surveys and barcode data, this study reveals a persistent 20% gap in red meat consumption between single men and women in the US. Investigating whether this disparity stems from gender stereotypes, we collect survey data to assess the influence of attitudes, beliefs, and implicit biases on meat consumption. Findings suggest that the gap is largely due to preferences and perceived needs rather than differences in beliefs about environmental, health, or ethical impacts. Moreover, an Implicit Association Test uncovers a strong bias linking meat with masculinity. The study further examines the stickiness of these consumption stereotypes through an experiment with identity priming and a de-biasing treatment, analyzing their effects on meat consumption expectations and conjoint analysis outcomes.
Behavior Working Group
Du 25/04/2024 de 10:00 à 11:00
R2-21
MAYAUX Damien(PSE)
MAYAUX Damien(PSE)
Utility and Contrast in Evidence Accumulation Models
Combining response times to choice data helps reveal preferences when decision-makers make mistakes. Evidence accumulation models, such as the Decision Diffusion Model (DDM) or the Linear Ballistic Accumulator, generate a joint distribution of choice and response times given a set of alternatives and their utility. These models have been shown to fit equally well empirical data for a given choice set. However, they generate diverging predictions about the effect of changing the utility of an alternative. In this paper, I clarify theoretically how utility enters these models and how they can be used for revealing preferences.
I characterize evidence accumulation models by their range – the set of all distributions that can be generated - and their contrast - the extent to which increasing the utility of one alternative slows down the choice of another. Evidence accumulation models have a similar range, but disagree on the contrast. One implication is that all these models would be equally suitable for revealing preferences if their contrast was properly calibrated.. I propose a tractable framework for this aim and give general conditions under which it is applicable. I illustrate my theoretical results with simulated data from a DDM model.
Development Economics Seminar
Du 24/04/2024 de 16:30 à 18:00
R2.01
ANNAN Francis (University of California, Berkeley ) Equilibrium Effects of Entry in Digital Financial Markets;
La séance est annulée
Economic History Seminar
Du 24/04/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1.09
YAZDANI Kaveh (U. Connecticut)
The Biography of Capitalism(s) – 10th to 18th Centuries
In this presentation, I will first discuss the different approaches vis-à-vis the periodization of capitalism. Then, the transition period towards merchant capitalism in Song China and West Asia from the 10th century onwards will be examined. Next, I will briefly touch upon the emergence of merchant capitalism proper, especially in northern Italian coastal cities. Finally, some Asio-African and European commercial capitalist and entrepreneurial-mercantilist capitalist activities and developments between the 16th and 18th centuries will be scrutinized.
PSI-PSE (Petit Séminaire Informel de la Paris School of Economics) Seminar
Du 23/04/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
R1-09
MAYAUX Damien (PSE)
Utility and Contrast in Evidence Accumulation Models
Virtual Development Economics Seminar
Du 23/04/2024 de 17:00 à 18:00
Zoom
GENICOT Garance ((Georgetown University and CEPR))
*
Paris Trade Seminar
Du 23/04/2024 de 14:30 à 16:00
PSE, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, salle R2-01
MAGLI Martina (LMU)
Should we stay or should we go? Firms' adjustment to trade shocks
écrit avec Holger Breilnich
Services account for one-third of global trade, yet little is known about the impact of trade restrictions on services trade. To make progress in this area, it is crucial to understand through which Modes services are traded (cross-border, movement of people, foreign investment or consumption abroad) and how firms substitute among these Modes. We provide novel micro-level evidence on firms' Mode choices, combining detailed data on UK firms' trade and affiliates' sales. We also estimate the substitution between trade Modes using Brexit as an exogenous shock, finding that UK firms increasingly relied on local affiliate sales to serve the EU market after 2016. This shift protected firm-level services exports from expected higher trade barriers after Brexit, but at the cost of lower domestic employment.
STEP (Seminar of Trade Economists in Paris)
Du 23/04/2024 de 13:00 à 14:00
R1-13
PRAETORIUS Sophie (Science Po)
Collaboration in Technology and Multinational Production
This paper studies how inter-firm collaboration in technology relates to global production choices.
Building a structural multinational production model that incorporates technology choices and allows
for collaboration when choosing the optimal assembly location for a given variety that is sold in a
specific destination market, I find that both technology choice and sharing of platforms as input
technology have important effects on the cost, and, thus, the expected profits of firms. Conditional
on technology, a firm’s cost of serving a market increases by 1% compared to a scenario where firm
choices are agnostic to input technology. On the other hand, allowing for collaboration reduces their
cost by 4%. These effects propagate through the firm’s entry choices and, thus, shape the global
production landscape
Applied Economics Lunch Seminar
Du 23/04/2024 de 12:30 à 13:30
Salle R2.21
TSOUTSOPLIDI Olivia (SciencesPo)
Campaign Finance Quotas and Descriptive Representation: Evidence from Brazil, 2002-2022
Can the public funding of parties and campaigns be used to increase descriptive
representation in elected office? Despite the adoption of gender quotas across over 130
countries since 1995 aiming to raise the share of women in parliament to 30 percent, its
global average remains at 26 percent. Beyond quotas, ear-marking public campaign funds for
minority candidates is another policy tool that countries have experimented with to level the
playing field in access to campaign resources, and remains understudied. We study the
efficiency of a novel 2021 reform in Brazil that goes further than earmarking in tying the
allocation of public funds to the performance of female and racial minority candidates. Using
a triple-diff strategy and exploiting a unique feature in the institutional setting that induces
financial incentives in federal but not in state legislative elections, we causally identify the
impact of the reform on candidate performance in the 2022 general election. We find that the
reform improved the performance of white women and black men but not that of black
women, suggesting an intersectionality penalty. We conduct a voter survey experiment to
discard demand-driven effects and qualitative interviews with party officials to explore
different potential mechanisms driving the effect.
GPET Seminar
Du 23/04/2024 de 09:00 à 12:40
R1-13
• 9:00 Coffee
• 9:10-10:00 : Hector Paredes : Land Without Masters: local political competition since the Peruvian Land Reform (1969-1980)
• 10:00-10:50: Luc Paluskiewicz : Gender Quotas, Campaign Financing Rules and Party Bias against Women in Brazil
• Break
• 11:00-11:50 : Youssef Salib BCA and reshuffling: a theoretical framework
• 11:50-12:40 : Rafael Schütz : Demand-induced innovation in low-externality goods
Followed by STEP Seminar at 13:00 R1-13 PRAETORIUS Sophie (Science Po): recipient of 4th year PhD financing of Research Chair Globalization
Roy Seminar (ADRES)
Du 22/04/2024 de 17:00 à 18:30
R1-09
IIJIMA Ryota (Yale)
Multidimensional Screening with Rich Consumer Data
écrit avec Mira Frick and Yuhta Ishii
We study multi-good sales by a seller who has access to rich data about a buyer's valuations for the goods. Optimal mechanisms in such multi-dimensional screening problems are known to in general be complicated and not resemble mechanisms observed in practice. Thus, we instead analyze the optimal convergence rate of the seller's revenue to the first-best revenue as the amount of data grows large. Our main result provides a rationale for a simple and widely used class of mechanisms---(pure) bundling---by showing that these mechanisms allow the seller to achieve the optimal convergence rate. In contrast, we find that another simple class of mechanisms---separate sales---yields a suboptimal convergence rate to the first-best and thus is outperformed by bundling whenever the seller has sufficiently precise information about consumers.
Régulation et Environnement
Du 22/04/2024 de 12:00 à 13:30
R1-09
KELLOGG Ryan (University of Chicago)
*The End of Oil
Abstract: It is now plausible to envision scenarios in which global demand for crude oil falls to essentially zero by the end of this century, driven by a combination of improvements in clean energy technologies and adoption of increasingly stringent climate policies. This paper asks what such a demand decline might mean for global oil supply once the industry adopts a belief that the decline is upon it. One concern is the well-known “green paradox” effect: because oil is an exhaustible resource, producers may accelerate near-term extraction in order to beat the demand decline. This reaction would increase near-term CO2 emissions and could possibly even lead the total present value of climate damages to be greater than if demand had not declined at all. However, because increasing or even maintaining the rate of oil production requires investments in wells and other infrastructure, and because such investments can be long-lived, the opposite effect may also occur: an anticipated demand decline causes firms to reduce their investments, hence decreasing near-term production and CO2 emissions. I develop a tractable model that incorporates both of these effects in a market with heterogeneous producers—while also capturing industry features such as exercise of market power by low-cost OPEC producers and marginal drilling costs that increase with the rate of drilling—and examine quantitatively which effect is likely to outweigh the other. Preliminary results indicate that for model inputs with the strongest empirical support, the disinvestment effect dominates the traditional green paradox effect. In order for an anticipated demand decline to substantially increase near-term global oil production, I find that industry investments must have very short time horizons, and that producers must have discount rates that are comparable to U.S. treasury bill rates.